Russia de facto realized an annexation of certain occupied areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions during recent elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation.
During the last elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation, de facto, certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions occupied by Russia were annexed. After the mass Russian certification of the occupied territory residents, Ukraine faced a serious challenge, to which, unfortunately, the Ukrainian authorities did not respond.
In the laws on the “territorial organization of the DPR and LPR” we can read about the aggressor’s plans to occupy the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Representatives of illegal armed groups who have received Russian citizenship will sooner or later be used by the Kremlin as a consumable for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. The implementation of this scenario will allow Russia to justify its military aggression by protecting its citizens living in the occupied territory. To prevent the implementation of this dangerous scenario, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must address Russian President Volodymyr Putin with a proposal to place UN peacekeepers on the line of demarcation between Ukraine and the occupied territories. Given the geopolitical realities in which our country finds itself, this initiative would allow Ukraine to freeze the conflict in Donbass and gain time to strengthen its defense capabilities.
On September, 8th the well-known American think tank for security and foreign policy, the CENTER FOR STRATEGIC INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, presented a study written by Mark Cancian on the future of NATO enlargement. In this study, the main focus was on the requirements for the military and the necessary costs to strengthen the United States and its NATO allies.
The authors of this study also analyzed the possibility of Ukraine, Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Finland and Sweden to join NATO. According to the authors of this analytical report, the armed forces of the Russian Federation during a full-scale military aggression against our country will be able to capture the left bank of Ukraine, taking Ukrainian troops who will try to defend Kharkiv and other major cities in the ring. NATO strikes on Russia’s armed forces will not stop their advance into Ukraine.
Mark Cancian believes that relevant conditions for NATO counterattack can be created only after three months of aggression by our northern neighbor. In response to a NATO counterattack, Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons.
According to the authors of this report, the strengthening of Ukraine’s security will require the permanent deployment of three brigades (one – the United States, two NATO), the deployment of one air defense brigade and the presence of instructors and command staff (250 people), two US Air Force squadrons and one NATO. All these needs require $27 billion to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
As for certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions occupied by Russia, from the point of view of American experts who wrote this analytical report, to establish control over these regions and return the territories to Ukraine, it is necessary to spend $98 billion in 5 years on peace support and another 130 billion on the counter – insurgent and anti-terrorist operations. After reading this report, Ukrainians must finally get rid of the illusions about Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the reintegration of the occupied territories into Ukraine.
The Russian Federation will never allow Ukraine to join NATO, same as the United States has prevented the deployment of nuclear missiles in Cuba. Therefore, in order to protect its national interests, Ukraine is best suited to a neutral status, which, with Russia’s consent to end the aggression against our country, would allow Ukraine to focus on domestic development.
Of course, there is no denying how insidiously Russia, taking advantage of our weakness, staged a military aggression against our country. But we must also not forget that the Obama administration and European politicians, putting pressure on Yanukovych to agree to the signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU, understood perfectly well that our country would become neither a member of the EU nor a member of NATO. In fact, both Russia and the United States and the EU have cynically used Ukraine in their geopolitical interests.
The Kremlin ideologues are now in euphoria over the Biden administration’s foreign policy decisions. In their view, the illusions of American politicians to turn Russia into an ally of the United States to contain China allow Russia to increase opportunities for geopolitical maneuvers. Russian pro-government experts believe that the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and China will lead to a transatlantic split and increase Russia’s influence in Western Europe. China, unlike Russia, does not seek to destroy the EU and NATO, so Europeans do not understand why they should sacrifice their economic interests by going to war with China for the sake of the United States.
China, which is the largest economic competitor for the United States, does not seek to export its political model to other countries. At present, China is focused on developing the domestic market, import substitution, reducing dependence on foreign trade and increasing the solvency of the population. Chinese politicians are convinced that China’s internal stability will allow it to at least not lose in the geopolitical confrontation with the United States.
French experts have recently begun to write more and more about the emergence of a new geopolitical competitor in the EU, Britain and the British Commonwealth. And if earlier the United States was an arbiter in the conflicts between its Euro-Atlantic partners – Britain, France and Germany, now for the American political establishment the containment of China is in the first place. The consequence of such a foreign policy will be the rapprochement of Germany and France, our partners in the “Norman format” with the Russian Federation. In fact, no matter what Ukrainian politicians say (they only focus on opinion polls and make statements to increase their ratings), Ukraine stands alone face to face with imperialist Russia, remaining on the periphery of national interests, both of the United States and the EU.
Only rapid economic development will allow us to ensure social and political stability within our country, which will be a safeguard against full-scale military aggression by Russia. The citizens of Ukraine should finally understand that both Russia and the United States with the EU are interested in our country, first of all, as a buffer between East and West.
A revealing example for Ukraine is Finland , where the neutral status firstly did not stop Finland to succeed economically due to winning time, and then after the collapse of the Soviet Union to join the EU on January 1, 1995. Either Ukrainians will make a rational choice, choosing neutral status, which is the most appropriate to meet geopolitical realities where Ukraine finds itself now. The choice is made by Ukrainians!