The Democrats, who built their election strategy largely on the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war, continue to implement their plan, finding themselves in an increasingly narrow corridor of decisions.
We continue to analyze the strategy of the Democratic Party in the presidential elections – a key event through the prism of which we must consider the processes taking place in the world.
One of the turning points of the American election campaign is the story of Biden's non-nomination.
After the Biden-Trump debate, Democrats were concerned that the current president looked unconvincing.
Some members of the Democratic Committee are even calling for the presidential candidate to be replaced while there is still time.
However, Joe Biden was stubborn, and the entire top of the Democratic Party, the liberal press, and even Hollywood actors openly appealed to Biden with increasingly insistent requests to withdraw his candidacy.
Three-time Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Thomas Friedman wrote in a column for The New York Times: “I cannot recall a more heartbreaking moment in an American presidential campaign in my lifetime…the president must declare publicly that he will not run for reelection…If he [Biden] does, Americans will cheer Joe Biden every day for doing what Donald Trump would never do: put country before himself.”
Hollywood actor George Clooney called on Biden to withdraw from the presidential race: “The only battle he can’t win is the fight against time,” the actor wrote in a column for The New York Times.
The Axios portal reported that Biden's future fate would be decided by the president's wife, Jill Biden, his younger sister, Valerie Biden, and 85-year-old Ted Kaufman, a longtime friend and constant adviser to the president, as well as a small group of White House advisers.
The “family” got together and decided… to go!
Along the way, Joe got into a scandal at the NATO summit, confusing the words "talking" and "f*cking" in relation to Stoltenberg's wife.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump, elated by the sign of his miraculous survival after a failed assassination attempt, was nominated as a presidential candidate.
Trump's entire rhetoric and the election campaign as a whole were aimed at "wiping out" a feeble, senile old man.
And at the moment when Biden announced that he himself was not running, but was supporting Kamala, the only crazy old man in this election campaign was Trump himself.
Now this weapon is turned against him.
Even diluting the presidential couple's middle age with forty-year-old Vance didn't help.
Of course, knowing that Biden would not run, Trump would have put up a vice-president, such as Nikki Haley or Marco Rubio (he is of Cuban descent), trying to capture other electoral groups than just white men.
But nothing could be changed.
The Democratic team waited for Trump to make an irreparable mistake and took full advantage of it.
Like in the movie "The Prestige" (2006), the Chinese guy who did the trick with the aquarium had to pretend to be crippled for years. Just for this one trick! His whole life was subordinated to this trick with the aquarium.
Biden repeated this trick. Although not his whole life, but only for the last year and a half or two, he played the role of a crazy old man falling apart before our eyes.
If the Democratic campaign invited Steven Spielberg only to put a dramatic pause on Biden's non-nomination, then bravo!
But, apparently, these are not all the director’s ideas.
In mid-September, Kamala Harris released a campaign video that showed key milestones in Ukrainian history and Trump's statements about Ukraine and Putin.
The video is aimed at Americans of Ukrainian, Polish and Lithuanian descent and will be broadcast in key states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Thus, with this pre-election move, the Democrats have further tied their strategy for winning the elections to the results of the war in Ukraine.
But why should ending the war in Ukraine matter to American voters at all?
The main argument of the “narrow corridor” skeptics for the Democrats is that Ukraine is at the bottom of the list of issues that interest American voters.
But the thing is that the main part of the list has already been "sorted out." Voters on both sides of the barricades have already made up their minds on the main issues of the internal life of the United States.
There are still those who have not decided, and the task of both parties is to “determine” them, otherwise they simply will not go to the elections.
It will be possible to win the election on a question that lies outside the first lines of the “list”.
Moreover, the factor of war in Ukraine can be played out by both opponents.
Kamala Harris continues Biden's policy of containing Russia, which would require Ukraine, with US help, to "stop" Putin.
Donald Trump promises to stop the war in 24 hours by making a deal.
Trump will lash out at the Democrats for failing to address the issue. Trump himself will be blamed for the supposed humiliating peace with Russia.
But Trump is not in power – he can promise anything. But the Democrats will have the war in Ukraine “put on their heads.”
Moreover, no one forced Kamala and her staff to speak up. The video with sunflowers, where she promises to stop Putin, can be used against her if there is no progress in ending the war in Ukraine.
Therefore, the Democrats need a result. And one that will be: a) obvious; b) unambiguous.
But the problem is that, following Biden, Kamala Harris is painting a similarly vague picture of victory, which puts Democrats in a very difficult position.
The world community simply expects peace from the United States – an end to the war in Ukraine.
The Democrats have essentially been put on a stretch (to which they themselves contributed in no small part), and they will be under pressure from several factors:
- China - having proposed its plan, the PRC is waiting for the US to make a mistake in order to push them off the throne. Switzerland and Hungary have joined the now Chinese-Brazilian peace plan to resolve the military conflict in Ukraine. The Chinese-Brazilian initiative is once again gaining momentum against the backdrop of the fact that alternative plans have not been presented or do not have widespread support.
- Trump will similarly not miss the opportunity to smear his competitors if they cede leadership to China;
- Time - there is a month left before the elections;
- Elections - you need to win them, otherwise it could end badly for the political careers and freedom of many functionaries from the Democratic Party;
- Domestic US gasoline prices - in light of soaring oil prices due to escalation in the Middle East;
- Sullivan-Burns Strategy - the proposed solution should not lead to the disintegration of the Russian Federation as a key player in the New Cold War;
- Diplomatic variable geometry – the solution must fit within the framework of the new global security architecture and confirm its effectiveness;
- The objective capabilities of Ukraine are its ultimate human and military potential;
- Inadmissibility of nuclear escalation – the decision must in no way jeopardize nuclear safety.
That means the Biden administration has one month left to end the war in Ukraine.
US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said: "Ultimately, I think there is a recognition that some of this is going to have to be addressed at the negotiating table. And the hope would be that at some point in the not-too-distant future we will find ourselves engaging in some kind of diplomatic engagement."
But why should Russia agree to negotiations?
The Russian Federation is demonstratively ignoring the Kursk region issue, pretending that nothing of the sort happened – like, it’s a work issue, we’ll solve it somehow.
At the same time, Russia continues to advance in Donbass and to enter into negotiations now would mean losing the initiative.
Kursk slowed down the Russian advance in Donbass, but did not stop them. Mobilization in Ukraine is in full swing, weapons are being transferred, but no particular results are visible.
So, in order for Russia to agree to negotiations, they need to be shocked. Literally!
That is, Russia can only be forced to negotiate by force. This is basically Trump's plan.
But for the Democrats, a number of restrictions will already be in effect - the transfer of additional weapons will not solve anything, and the allocation of additional money will not pass through Congress. Especially since Ukraine has already been allocated $7.9 billion in military aid until the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the Western press writes about problems in the Ukrainian army and the crumbling front in Donbas. According to The Times, another 200,000 Ukrainians may be mobilized by the end of the year. But corruption, a shortage of personnel, and the health of those mobilized are preventing the plan from being fulfilled.
During a visit to Kyiv, NATO's new Secretary General Mark Rutte said that time is not on Ukraine's side...
That is, the most important foreign policy promise to “stop Putin” is still just a promise.
And the time is less than a month...
What can Democrats do in the "narrow corridor"?
On October 10, Biden will meet with German Chancellor Scholz, French President Macron and British Prime Minister Starmer at the Ramstein base.
Why is Biden flying to Germany?
First , if Biden had simply wanted to have high-level talks with the leaders of Germany, France and Great Britain, a more civil format would have been chosen.
The meeting of Biden, Scholz, Macron and Starmer is announced at the American military base Ramstein. That is, the format is maximally militarized. And this is the signal that the US presidential administration is relaying.
Secondly , the level of representation – only the top officials participate. If they wanted to announce the transfer of one hundred thousand shells, the next Rammstein would have been held in a regular, one might even say routine mode. So it would be about something important.
Thirdly , this will be the last Ramstein for Biden as President. This means that it should be, in a certain sense, final. And significant, both for Biden and the Democrats, and for the Ramstein format itself as the primary link in the new global security architecture.
Fourthly , the meeting will take place right before the elections. In conditions when the Democrats and Republicans have mobilized their electorate, the fight will be for the undecided.
Given these factors, and especially the fact that there are less than 4 weeks left until election day, it is possible to assume (purely from a political technology point of view) that some process must occur that must influence the preferences of undecided American voters.
Moreover, the process must consist of three consecutive events.
First – October 10: the meeting at Ramstein. The decisions and statements that will be made there should create the necessary background for the following events.
The second is approximately October 20–22: a bright, emotional, time-compressed event associated with the Russian-Ukrainian war, launching the next electorally significant event for Americans.
Third – approximately October 28 – November 1–2: Super Event X.
The dates of the last two events, purely from a political standpoint, are calculated by analogy with previous successful Democratic presidential campaigns.
If the Democrats do not take advantage of this chance, they will put their political future at extreme risk. And judging by many signs, they do not intend to hand over power to Trump.
Authors:
Vladimir Shevchenko , political scientist, Doctor of Philosophy
Andrey Savarets , analyst, lawyer, author ofthe telegramchannel " Special Opinion "
