At the beginning of 2024, a poll in Poland showed that 27.4% of Polish respondents considered the most likely consequence of the Russian-Ukrainian war to be the destruction of both Ukraine and Russia.
This point of view is also shared by many Western intellectuals who see the devastating consequences of the war, primarily demographic and economic, for Ukraine and Russia. Now for Western elites, Putin’s Russia has ceased to be their priority; issues relating to the Putin regime, Russian elites, Putin’s successors, and the Russian opposition are absolutely not of interest to politicians in the West.
Western elites only seek to isolate themselves from the unpredictable Putin’s Russia, which, having fallen into a trap, is stuck in Ukraine , expecting that sooner or later, due to the sanctions that are increasing the technological backwardness of the Russian Federation, making it uncompetitive, the Russian elite will make a decision to return to partnerships relations with the West.
Ukraine, in this geopolitical game, is only a resource for the West (USA and Western Europe) to achieve profitable agreements with Russia.
Now the Kremlin is not going to freeze the war without the consent of the Ukrainian authorities to implement Putin’s ultimatum , which provides for the abandonment of Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia and, de facto, the demilitarization of Ukraine, in fact the loss of its subjectivity.
From the point of view of Russian technocrats, the resources of the Russian Federation will still be enough for several years of a full-scale war with Ukraine, sanctions will only have an impact in the long term, even a decrease in oil prices will not be able to immediately lead to the end of the war, which, from the point of view of representatives of the Russian elite, is being conducted not with Ukraine, but with the West.
The main problem of Russia, according to Russian technocrats, is the labor shortage, which is increasing due to the war with Ukraine, overheating of the economy and increasing economic dependence on China, which can develop in 5 years into Russia’s political dependence on the Middle Kingdom.
Therefore, the destruction of the Russian-speaking cities of Ukraine, whose residents left en masse for other Ukrainian regions, and the terrible losses among Russian military personnel will not help the Russian Federation become the third pole of the world, dividing it into spheres of influence together with China and the United States, will not help solve demographic problems, will not help damage geopolitical defeat for America.
A striking fact indicating the demographic problems of Russia is the massive importation of migrants from Central Asia into the occupied territories of Ukraine, when now the residents of the Ukrainian Mariupol call their city New Dushanbe - apparently, this is what it should look like from the point of view of Russian imperialists, chauvinists, traditionalists "Russian world".
We recommend reading the first part of the article “What’s wrong with Ukraine and Russia”
First, the Kremlin exchanged control over all of Ukraine for the illegal annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea, then in 2022 the Putin regime exchanged the possibility of geopolitical dominance in Europe for Putin’s adventure, so now adequate representatives of the Russian elite have a simple choice: either they will stop Russia’s aggression without issuing an ultimatum to our country , which will allow them to restore their influence in European countries, thereby weakening their dependence on China, or the destructive war for the once fraternal peoples will continue.
The Ukrainian elite, at least for its own self-preservation, needs to hold a meeting in the fall to establish agreements on new rules of the game, their observance and reducing its “appetites,” since the Kremlin is going to raise the stakes in the fall, including by destabilizing the Ukrainian rear, especially when The Ukrainian government and the opposition unknowingly actively contribute to the implementation of this scenario.
When Igor Kolomoisky is in a pre-trial detention center, Firtash is de facto under house arrest in Austria, Zhevago fled to France, and Rinat Akhmetov received, in his words, the worst sanction, not being able to walk on his native Donetsk soil, the Ukrainian elite has finally we need to draw conclusions while there is still time to do so.
The Ukrainian middle class also needs to draw conclusions, realizing that without creating a party, paying membership fees, donations to the party, financial support from adequate politicians, no one will protect their interests, since parliament is a representative body of government where the interests of those Ukrainians and pressure groups that recognize the importance of supporting politicians. Because, as you know, whoever pays calls the tune.
It is very significant that even after the statement of the famous American senator Lindsey Graham that Ukraine could be the richest country in Europe, having mineral reserves worth 10-12 trillion dollars, not a single Ukrainian politician suggested that citizens find out where and how many of these wealth is under the feet of Ukrainians.
While American politicians tell voters about creating jobs, reducing inflation, industrial policy, protecting national producers - everything that resonates with the interests of voters, Ukrainian politicians continue to mobilize their “nuclear electorate”, using primitive slogans, thereby demonstrating their anti-state essence.
Back in 2021, in my article “About Ukraine – without illusions,” I described in detail exactly how our country should have positioned itself to gain time and what terrible consequences for Ukraine would be the stay in the foreign policy illusions of Ukrainian society, which does not understand the importance of Ukrainian-centrism.
The current mistakes of the West are somewhat reminiscent of the mistakes of representatives of the fascist Putin regime, who did not understand the mentality of the Ukrainians. If Western politicians and intellectuals believe that Ukraine will remain in a gray zone for years, holding back imperialist Russia without real security guarantees, then in this case, sooner or later, they will hear from Ukrainians the words from the famous song of the Ukrainian singer Klavdia Petrovna: “I lied to you.” "I didn't love you."
