The Ukrainian society is unique, over the past 30 years it has, several times, created such chances for economic development that other societies are given every 50-70 years. Unfortunately, it must be admitted that the Ukrainian establishment with the same unique skill lowered these chances into the toilet, replacing the chance obtained by society later and blood - for the possibility of personal enrichment. Corruption economies are very beneficial to developed countries, as they make it possible to use such countries as raw material appendages by personally stimulating the Papuan leaders.
The scale of destruction caused by the war with the Russian Federation in Ukraine is already so colossal that hundreds of billions of dollars will be required to restore housing, non-residential stock, infrastructure, destroyed equipment, and production lines. On the one hand, it is a unique chance for building an economically industrial powerful state with a high level of production complexity and export potential. On the other hand, the opportunity for representatives of our deep state to fill their pockets personally at the expense of corrupt income from the distribution of the state border and the creation of knowingly harmful conditions for conducting any business in Ukraine.
Future silhouettes of economic policy approaches are illustrated, for example, by draft Law 7198 on compensation for damage and destruction of certain categories of real estate as a result of hostilities. An enchanting masterpiece of legislative thought, providing, for example - a restriction on compensation for a house of 150 square meters (it is interesting why, if a person had a house of 200 square meters, he should receive a house of a smaller area due to repairs), or making decisions on compensation by special Commissions (their function is not very clear - if the real estate object is (Citizens will be inhaled square meters under all pretexts, it is not clear where the court developers built, of incomprehensible quality for budget money - this is a bottomless feeder!). I'm not talking about compensation for the minimum repair of damaged housing so that it becomes habitable. There's not a word about it anywhere at all.
The head of the financial committee of the Verkhovna Rada Getmantsev, for example, said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine that "...If we are talking about attracting large investors from abroad, they should have some benefits. If we are talking about infrastructure projects, probably here we should also consider such a possibility..." and there is the following "...We introduced an unprecedented low tax, we abolished ERUs for "FOPs", the payment of a single tax for "FOPs" was made voluntary, we removed the excise tax on fuel. What other benefits? We don't want to dissolve the country at all. War is probably the most expensive process that is possible in principle, it requires huge financial resources. You need to take them somewhere..." We have priorities - foreign investors who will restore infrastructure through reparations, of course, should have benefits, but we can "dissolve" domestic business with benefits.
The direction of our legislators' thoughts is clear. However, we must understand several key factors that will determine the place of our economy for decades in the future:
Sources of funds for recovery. There are not many of these sources:
First of all, and most importantly, it's reparations. Seized assets of the Russian Federation, state-owned companies, and oligarchs abroad are a serious source of resources to which Ukraine and its citizens have a legal right. However, it is the fact that the volume of this resource is very large even for the world economy - determines the fact that the pragmatic West will not give it to our kleptocrats for no reason. It's not a pathetic couple of billion dollars to maintain our economic pants. Already now, estimates of the damage caused to Ukraine from the war amount to hundreds of billions of dollars. These are, respectively, huge orders for residential, industrial construction, and infrastructure. I don't understand why our corrupt workers of the deep state decided that it was they who would have to master these fantastic budgets in Stakhanov? A conditional country where Russian assets claimed by Ukraine are arrested will very transparently hint that the case of alienation of these assets will go much faster in favor of Ukraine if a conditional construction company from a conditional country receives a contract, for example, to restore roads or bridges at European rates. If not, bureaucracy and alienation of assets - processes are complex and can take years. Which Ukraine doesn't have. Why does anyone think it will be different? The world of money, especially very large ones, doesn't even smell like any lyrics. Of course, our corrupt officials will fight valiantly for the percentage of rollback, but in the end, the parties will agree, without a doubt. And Ukraine will get a meager economic effect from this.
To prevent this, we will have to strain very hard to defend our economic interests. Of course, we will have to make concessions, but it will depend on the degree of these concessions whether we use the chance for which our compatriots paid with our lives and whether we will be able to build a country here for which we will not be ashamed of them - or not.
Secondly, support for Western countries. In this situation, we are very dependent and, accordingly, as a recipient country, we will be forced to take into account the interests of the countries that will provide us with such assistance. Interests that often go against the interests of Ukraine. Therefore, the approach is this - investment in production - yes, loans to pay to your contractors - no (an example of China in Africa, where Chinese loans for infrastructure development are mastered by Chinese contractors, and the loans themselves are repaid by the supply of minerals - a vivid example of this).
Thirdly, our resources. I would not count on them at all, given the fall of the economy and the obvious impending budget crisis.
Domestic economic policy. You need to be realistic - people who today determine economic and financial, in particular, tax and customs policies - or incompetent or deliberately sabotage. Since they are part of the President's team, in the foreseeable future it is hardly worth counting on their replacement for the following reason. The fate of the current President has faced a challenge that threatens the very existence of our state. Already now, regardless of the outcome of the war, we can say that he accepted this challenge and goes through it with great dignity. Therefore, despite the howl of pseudo-patriots about the “zrads” - traitors (which have already existed and which will still be - with or without a peace treaty) - society will definitely give it and his team a mandate of trust in the next both parliamentary and presidential elections. Unfortunately, the economic bloc of his team is not capable at best, and at worst will simply deliberately kill all opportunities for a qualitative economic breakthrough. After all, the volume of accumulated tasks to simplify doing business was quite large and without war - it is corruption, an inefficient judicial system, a huge tax burden, and a tightened nut in the administration of taxes and duties. If the problems were not solved before the ratings of both the President and the ruling party fell, why will they be solved when these ratings take off?
Nevertheless, the main priorities:
- a reform of the judicial system;
- a creation of a favorable investment climate - in particular - the prohibition of inspections (tax, firefighters, labor protection, etc.), simplification of the tax system, introduction of a simplified taxation system for companies up to 200 million UAH (for example) and reduction of the tax rate for them to 2%;
- monetization of all benefits and payments, including compensation for destroyed housing (no need for any state-building - only private, give the victims money - let them decide what and where to buy - they have every right to do so);
- radical reduction of expenditures on the state apparatus;
- a system of concessional lending to business, especially export-oriented;
- a system of state insurance payments to businesses for possible destruction due to future aggression of the Russian Federation and penalties for the logistics of goods due to destroyed infrastructure (will allow businesses to feel more confident in case of future aggression by the Russian Federation).
Structure of the economy. The key question that our state has not yet answered is which country we are building economically - what are our priorities. Numerous state programs are not even seriously considered - they are full of declarations and are sabotaged at the average executive level. At the same time, the very current military (or post-war) situation pushes us into his decision:
Firstly, the development of the military-industrial complex. We must understand that this war with the Russian Federation is not the last. We live next to the enemy, so we must always be ready to attack as long as it exists. We must have the most closed cycle of production of the necessary weapons because otherwise, we will depend on the components of the countries, which on day C can twist our hands and condition such supplies with their interests at the expense of ours.
Secondly, ensuring the safety of critical industries. As the war has shown, today the Russian Federation can destroy almost any industrial facility on the territory of Ukraine. Unfortunately, they will retain this opportunity in the future. Therefore, there are possible ways for us to create our air defense systems, place critical industries in special economic zones on the territory of neighboring states (primarily in Poland as a strategic ally) and, if possible, diversify them (more production facilities are better but smaller than one - but large).
Thirdly, the maximum localization of production facilities related to the restoration of buildings and infrastructure with a view to export orientation in the future. In my opinion, this is the most important component because it is it that can become the engine of economic growth. We must create both the building materials industry and the mechanical engineering industry on our territory (in cooperation with Western countries - otherwise we simply will not receive reparation payments) - since the market volume in Ukraine will be sufficient to load them - and at the legislative level localize these and related industries in Ukraine at the level of 80-90% where it is technologically possible. The same applies to the production of critical groups of goods, such as food and fuel. Situations in which reparation payments for the restoration of infrastructure and buildings do not have or have a multiplier effect on the economy of Ukraine (as was the case with the participation of Onur in the project "Great Budivnitstvo") should be stopped. Sooner or later, industries such as the building materials industry, mechanical engineering, and engineering will be reoriented to export, so they should initially be competitive, and not just use localization as an uncompetitive strategy. It is necessary to understand that we will make an economic breakthrough only when every dollar spent will permeate our economy up to mining, and the resources attracted will go to build production facilities and purchase equipment, rather than pay foreign contractors.
Fourthly, maximum diversification. The more small and medium-sized businesses feel the multiplier effect of every dollar spent, our economy will be more sustainable there. It is clear that this is impossible in capital-intensive industries, but where the capital threshold for entering a business is small, it should be stimulated as much as possible both at the legislative level and at the level of implementation of state policy. This is why an interest-free business lending program is needed for entrepreneurs who are ready to take the risk of working in Ukraine in the proposed conditions.
Speed of execution of all the above points. To receive reparation payments, you do not need to wait and collect all the damage - you need to submit to international courts the materials that are already there. We need a source of funding that is minimally dependent on external actors. While we stand with an outstretched hand - it is difficult for us to demand something, we can only ask and try to maneuver between external interests and our own. Therefore, access to blocked money is needed already and as quickly as possible. But what to do with this money if our general economic conditions are never changed? This is the homework that should have already been done, but, unfortunately, there is no one to do it yet.
Thousands of our citizens have died and continue to die for the chance to become a free, economically prosperous, strong country in every sense. If we do not use this chance due to corruption and sabotage of officials, the next inevitable clash with the enemy can be fatal for us. I would very much like this chance, received at such a terrible price, to be used for future generations, and not missed, like many before it.