The UBS/Credit Suisse World Wealth Assessment provides a number of valuable lessons for Ukraine. Analysts have prepared a detailed database on more than 100 countries of the world. Unfortunately, Ukraine is not in the database. There is only such a parameter as "GDP per adult in 2022". It amounted to $3928.
I added the parameter "GDP per capita" from the IMF to the table. For Ukraine in 2022 it amounted to $4349. This is in order to make an assessment of the net wealth of Ukraine, to see where we are in the marathon distance to the “wealth and prosperity” award.
The very fact of Ukraine's absence in the authoritative analytical rating from UBS/Credit Suisse is indicative. For 30+ years, we have not created a full-fledged stock market. Ukrainian investments are practically absent in global, regional corporate centers. Joint, investment, venture funds are an uncertain, boundless future.
The insurance business is also more about a dysfunctional past than a dynamic future. The rule of law and the protection of property rights are in the red zone of high risks. Governance indicators put Ukraine in the second hundred countries. Estimates of foreign investors who have a negative experience of entering Ukraine are constantly voiced at forums, conferences and in analytical reports.
For managers of large private investments, consultants of people with money, this is enough to not include the country in their ratings. In other words, if UBS / Credit Suisse believes that Ukraine is not on the investment map of the world, then this opinion is taken into account by the American Wall Street, and the British City, and the German Frankfurt, and the Polish Warsaw.
We can object, resent, refer to the presence of huge energy commodities, rich mineral deposits, point to clear signs of accumulated wealth, dynamic Ukrainian business, and much more.
UBS/Credit Suisse nods his head, accepts our argument, and gives us this analogy. “You love football. Say you have a great team. But she has never competed in an official FIFA competition. You first accept our rules, show yourself, accept the requirements of anti-doping control - then you will have your national rating.
So it is with the assessment of wealth. In this case, not having a grade is even worse than having a bad grade. Of course, it is possible to be outside the global financial system and declare that we are also wealthy and successful. Such statements are for internal PR and political campaigns.
If we set the task of providing every Ukrainian with sufficient capital (financial, non-financial) to enjoy life, then the standards of UBS / Credit Suisse, other world financial management centers, their recommendations on organizing economic activity are obligatory for us.
A country with a share of 0.16% in world GDP, less than 0.3% in world exports, and 0.1% in accumulated foreign direct investment, of course, has the sovereign right to enter the world market with its own charter and try to propose its own standards. The chances of success from such a publication are close to zero.
In 2022 GDP per capita of Ukraine (IMF data, April 2023) amounted to $4349. UBS estimated GDP per adult in Ukraine at $3,928. Let me give you a few comparisons. GDP per adult Ukraine is almost 35% less than Tunisia, 2.3 times less than Georgia, 2.6 times less than South Africa, 5.1 times less than Romania, 4.5 times less than Malaysia, 4.2 times less than Mexico and 41% less than Indonesia.
It makes no sense to compare Ukraine in this parameter with developed countries or those post-Soviet countries that joined the EU 20 years ago. We are 5.9 times behind Poland in terms of GDP per adult.
It is important to understand how much a country has capitalized its resources and assets, what is the level of monetization of its comparative advantages, through what financial instruments people can invest their savings, how and through which sectors the country is involved in the global system of labor division.
Unfortunately, the dominance of the Oligarchy/Schematosis model blocked the full integration of Ukraine into the world economy, deprived Ukrainians of financial opportunities that are available to Chileans, New Zealanders, Slovaks and Bulgarians. We failed the marketing of the country. We did not deal with its branding (before the war) so that made in Ukraine would not only sound on show-off, glossy forums, but add 10-20% to the price of a Ukrainian manufacturer.
As a result, we got, in fact, a steering wheel, as they say in sports. Ukraine's share of less than 0.1% in world wealth is a logical result of ignoring the laws of economics, economic freedom, including the institution of private property.
The legal, institutional Frankenstein created in the country is not able to create wealth for every Ukrainian. The model works for ~3% of the population, the lion's share of which are VIP managers and consumers of someone else's.
In order for Ukraine to be considered in the world economy, for us to become a full-fledged subject, our economy must be at least one trillion dollars, and the share of our net wealth in the world must be at least $5 trillion or 1% of the world. This is a very ambitious goal for 20-30 years ahead.
Its achievement means the unconditional success of the country, its political, intellectual, economic and cultural elites. Look at Ireland with 5 million people, where each adult (median) has over $90,000 of net wealth. Look at Taiwan, which, alongside authoritarian China, has created a veritable economic miracle.
Here, the median wealth per adult is over $108,000. At the same time, the state redistributes through its own hands less than 20% of GDP. Look at Singapore, which has made a wonderful place to live from a deserted island, where the median net wealth per adult is almost $100,000.
Ukraine cannot be guided by the models, sources of growth, size and functionality of the state of France, Italy, Germany or Britain, because these countries have been creating wealth for centuries. Today they either support it or eat it away.
The answer to the question of what to do is given, described in detail in the program "Ukraine - the New West" . Take it and do it. It remains to create and empower the Ukrainian dream team, our national dream team.
It remains to neutralize the fears of the population, the greed / lust for power of the beneficiaries of the old model and convince the disposition makers to start systemic transformations today, without waiting for the end of the war. For a nation of heroes that has challenged the world's most feared evil empire, economic freedom will be like a thousand F-16s along with state-of-the-art artillery and NATO membership.
