The United States and the European Union failed to understand that unlike China, which is completely satisfied by current international system, Russia wants to gain revenge for the defeat of the Soviet Union in the cold war.
Top American analysts are sure that Russia aspires only to the regional leadership, trying to return the control over their former area of influence. From their point of view, Russia has neither potential, nor resources to inflict geopolitical damage on the United States. It is noteworthy that the representatives of the political establishment in the United States and the EU never understood that unlike China, China, which is completely satisfied by current international system, Russia wants to gain revenge for the defeat of the Soviet Union in the cold war.
The Kremlin knows how to play long chess parties, aimed at destabilization of the United States and the EU, meanwhile the western politics still don’t want to recognize that in Ukraine Russia runs hybrid war against the West, which leads to destruction of current liberal system.
Some leading Russian experts believe that the strategy of Russian dominance in Europe was created in early 1980s. Deputy Head of the Cabinet of Ministers and the Head of the State Planning Committee of the USSR Nikolai Baibakov together with the Minister of Gas Industry Viktor Chernomirdin were present at the secret meeting in New Urengoi in 1982. At this meeting Nikolai Baibakov announced that the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Russia should increase the production of some types of gas and oil for new gas pipelines, using which the Soviet Union will be able to deliver up to 70% of the necessary gas supply to Western Europe, which will lead to the full dependence of Western European countries from the Soviet energy carriers.
During this meeting Nikolai Baibakov according to present witnesses said: “The Central Committee of the Communist Party of Russia and Leonid Brezhnev set a task to build pipelines, which are to become a tool for economic and political influence on Europe. The main aim of this plan is that growth of enerfy dependence of Europe from the USSR drives the US influence to the minimum”.
In fact, now the Kremlin is completing this mission using our short-sighted foreign partners. The launch of the “Nord Stream – 2” will allow Russia to increase a split between the “old” and the “new Europe”, moreover the Kremlin will empower its influence on German political establishment and German society reinforcing its anti-Americanism. For the Kremlin it is important to desacralize Western values by means of politicians from the US and the European Union showing that all these democratic values end when money starts.
In 2003 the Russian Federation approved Energy strategy of Russia for the period till 2020, which aimed at creation of the “energy state”, which should use energy carriers to strengthen its geopolitical ingluence. The document also declared the necessity to control oil and gas pipelines of neighbor states. Now Gasprom fully or partially controls pipeline systems of Latvia, Estonia , Finland, Moldova, Slovakia, Serbia, Bulgaria and Belarus. It was very important for Gasprom to strengthen their dominant position and the gas market of Europe taking control over pipelines and underground gas storages, which the Kremlin can use any moment to provoke artificial gas shortage in Europe.
Russian experts in energy many times stated that building the “Blue stream” on the ground of the Black sea to Turkey was firstly aimed to prevent Iranian gas from going to Europe. Concerns of the Kremlin is connected with great storages of gas in Iran which costs less than the Russian, moreover traffic of Iranian gas to Europe would compromise the monopoly of Gasprom at the European gas market. In Russia even a few pro-authority journalists think that war in Syria was necessary for the Kremlin to avoid building the pipeline from Middle East to Europe.
It is hard not to mention storages of gas in Middle East countries, if delivered to Europe, would end Russian gas dictate and decrease prices. The first place among Middle East countries in gas resources is occupied by Iran – 27,8 trillion cubic meters, the second place is Qatar – 25,6, the third is Saudi Arabia– 7,17, followed by United Arabian Emirates – 6,09 and Iraq – 3,18 trillion cubic meters. But because of instability of Middle East pipelines to Europe have not been built.
Hopes of Biden’s administration representatives that cancellation of sanctions against the company operating the Russian pipeline “Nord stream – 2” AG, will allow to transform Germany to an ally in moderation of China are absolutely groundless because according to latest polls the majority of Germans supported neutrality in geopolitical conflict between the USA and China. German business, the main sponsor of political parties in Germany, is also not interested in geopolitical confrontation with China.
Our Western partners actively tolerate the Kremlin in ruining transit status of our state trying to exhaust Ukraine economically because absence of the gas transit or its significant shortage would lead to giant loss in Ukrainian budget and jump of the gas price.
Ukrainians should understand that the growth of the gas price will lead to increase of prices for literally everything – which will hit the social sphere strongly. So Vladimir Putin would only have to wait for social outburst in Ukraine, which would be used by the Kremlin to justify the aggression of Russian against Ukraine.
Without economical moderation and coming to power a new subject elite, which would be able to act independently from Washington and Moscow, Ukraine would not be able to defeat Russia. Hopes of Ukrainians connected with Ukraine joining NATO and the EU where we are not welcome by anyone, for some reason remind a quotation from “The dog’s heart”: “I’m telling you the truth: on Mya 4th, 1925 the Earth will strike the stellar axis!”
The defeat of Ukraine will simultaneously be a defeat of the West. Firstly, in case of full-scale aggression of Russia our country becomes the source of humanitarian crisis for all Europe, because millions of refugees will enter the territory of European countries. Secondly, if Russia absorbs Ukraine, military forces of the Russian Federation will appear near borders of Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, which will destabilize all Central Europe. Thirdly, the defeat of Ukraine will lead to a huge reputation strike on the USA, which will for sure used by China, which strives to absorb Taiwan.
So our Western partners have to understand while it is not too late that creation of a new “Marshall’s plan” for Ukraine meets their national interests because according to brilliant lines of Ukrainian poet Lina Kostenko: “People, were are you looking?! We go today, you go tomorrow”.