Let us imagine the world in 2050 year. Climatically neutral economy. 100% of renewable energy sources. Colonization of Mars allows to provide Earth with all periodic table in required volumes. 10 billion people inhabit planet Earth. All the waste gets recycled. What we now call the Industrial Revolution 4.0 occupies 30-50% in the structure of economies of developed countries. All of this is at the distance of a maximum of one generation. If it is difficult for someone to believe in this – remember what level of technologies was there while those who are very young were born. If someone hesitates on a logical level – read analytical and strategical documents of leading brain centers of the world.
Where is Russia in this image? It is absent. It is just that its key competitive advantages are rapidly losing relevance. First of them are natural resources. Russian resources will be forced to fight hard for a place in the global market. They will have so many competitors that consumer countries would be able to choose manufacturers based not on price but values, which are to put it mildly, are different in Russia from lots of others. Energy would be so cheap and so ecological that Russian oil, natural gas and coal will become unnecessary for anyone.
Second competitive advantage is propaganda. Despite being destructive, it was polished to perfection and helped Kremlin to achieve many targets over the last decade. Russia became an empire of lies, which is not just the poetical name of local reality but also the basis of national politics. Now it is seen that this advantage becomes a main problem. After all, because of the lies Russia believed in the possibility of blitzkrieg in Ukraine and got hard on her teeth. Because of the lies, Kremlin believed in the high technological level of its army but it turned out to be much lower than it was expected. Because of the lies the state cannot make adequate management decisions neither on strategic nor tactical levels. Therefore, its development and transition to a new level in the era of nanoprocesses and hyper speeds is almost impossible.
Third competitive advantage – power structures. It is also destructive, but this is one of the few elements of the systemic heritage of the USSR, which Russia did not only saved but also developed. For the last several decades, Russian security forces solved many internal and external tasks that arose before the Kremlin. But now even this advantage becomes a problem. Because in society where security forces dominate fear reigns. This is an essential social sediment of predominance of the right of the strong. It can be different, but in all manifestations of it there is one same thing – on the level of simple human fear blocks creativity. To enter the future Russia is ought to create, invent something new and invent new technologies. However, Russian people are not capable of it because they are afraid. Here is a proof: among almost 70 companies from the Moscow Stock Exchange index only one (Yandex) works in a field of information technologies. In recent decades, all of more or less noticeable achievements of Russian economy were either a copy of the West or the direct work of Western companies, which came to work in Russia because they were attracted by this huge market, pumped with petrodollar steroids. If there is no market - there will be no one to create. to the future will become impossible. The current wave of nationalization of assets of Western companies that refuse working in Russia will end with a well-known historical analogy. It means the following: for the entire period after World War II global car industry has come a long way, but appearance and quality of the Russian car VAZ, copied at one time not from the Italian, not from American models almost did not change.
Forth competitive advantage is culture (literature). It is rather far-fetched because Russia does not have and does not generate new meanings, which are interesting for the world. In addition, if you listen to the telephone conversations of Russian prisoners with their relatives and trace their behavior during this war it becomes clear that as for the old meanings for the most part no one has read or knows anything. The habit of littering everywhere where the Russian's foot steps becomes ideologically harmful in the era of strict global control over the environmental friendliness of human activities. Life position "all people are enemies" is absolutely wrong in the era when the world is able to solve huge global problems only through cooperation.
Fifth competitive advantage is a big territory. There may be a place for it in the future in the conditions of overpopulation of the Earth. Nevertheless, the example of Alaska shows that trade in territories does not last long. Rather, these territories will have to be disposed of by other sovereignties than the Kremlin will be able to bargain for them at least a hryvnia.
Where is Ukraine in this image? We are there at least at the level of worldview. It's not so much about freedom-loving, ability to self-organize into decentralized networks and uncompromising advocacy of values on which the civilizational success of the West was built. Eight years after the Revolution, Ukraine has proved that, although we still have many complexes, internal obstacles and bottlenecks of public administration, but we are open to the world, ready to cooperate, integrate into the global market, to do what is interesting to the world. That is, we are ready to integrate and compete although because of our past we sometimes find it quite difficult and ridiculous. Proof of this are the many stories of Ukraine's recent corporate success, which include quite large by today's standards companies such as Grammarly, Petcube. Newly built car parts factories, without which the European car industry stopped for two weeks after the start of the war, numerous agricultural holdings, that work according to the latest word in global agricultural technologies, even the same aircraft factories, inherited from the USSR, which found the strength to transfer the lion's share of components from Russian to Western.
So mentally, Ukraine is ready for the future. Then the question arises whether there is enough sectoral potential in our economy? At least we can make money on food. Europe believes we must make money on renewable energy and pure hydrogen (that is why we are mentioned in the EU's hydrogen strategy). We have a strong layer of IT engineers, which is increasingly integrates into the world economy. It can be scaled with a good level of education in the field of exact sciences, inherited from Soviet times. Ukraine has a great transit potential, the relevance of which is growing dramatically given the prospects of Russia's long-term international isolation. So recreational potential of Ukrainian land is far from full implementation. We can be interesting to the world, we are ready to break into the future and according to some indicators, we have such competitive advantages that will later be more relevant than now.
It follows from all of this that Russia is at war with Ukraine not for territory and especially not for six points voiced by Putin, but for existence. For its existence in the new era. For Russia, this war is existential. It has historically happened that the path, chosen and passed by her in the past makes it impossible for her to adapt to the future. Therefore, ideally, Russia would like the future to do not come. However, this is impossible because no one can stop the progress so she needs Ukraine to dissolve the barrel of tar with a spoonful of honey, look like something civilized and at least somehow catch in the future.
That is, in the Russian-Ukrainian war past fights with a future. Age-old, pale from old age Baba Yaga, wrapped in a tricolor scarf, lies in the coffin in the cemetery of history. She is not dead yet: reaches out and grabs a leg of little girl, with chestnut braids, braided yellow and blue ribbons. It is not just scary and immoral. This is a challenge to life itself. Now little Ukraine is forced to accept this challenge and defend life for anyone, for whom it is a value, for those, who think progress is unavoidable.
This leads to several conclusions:
1. In the existential war, fight would be lead to the end. Win or lose. Russia cannot let go of Ukraine because without her she cannot enter the new period and be worthy, necessary participant for the world. The doors of the future are slowly closing so Russia is forced to act now because later it is going to be more difficult, the losses will be greater, perspectives – worse. Ukraine cannot agree with temporary truce, otherwise, it will be necessary in one or other form to bring Russia with ourselves in a new period, and this is at least one more lost century. No compromises in the middle do not correspond strategical national interests of Ukraine.
2. Since for Russia the war is existential, she will not sort out the means. If you try to cut down a bear at once, especially with the direct participation of NATO, then there is no doubt that he will use nuclear weapon. The bear needs to be put to sleep, preferably forever. His propensity to live in self-deception plays into our hands. Although each additional day of the war costs Ukraine enormous human and material losses but probably every day of the war we buy years or decades of freedom in the future. This is civilizational confrontation, which lasts for centuries. We must beat the Russians for a long time so that they will forever remember the pain and shame of defeat at the genetic level.
3. Russia wants to destroy Ukrainian statehood by conquering our resources. Therefore, if Ukraine does not attack sharply but in defence gradually grind “zombies”, Kremlin would please himself with illusory self-deception that he is able to conquer Ukraine to the last moment and will not try to turn it to burnt, radioactively contaminated ground (we try for ourselves they say). It is necessary to play on it.
4. Balancing between necessary and sufficient resistance, Ukraine, together with the constant help of the West, must exhaust Russia, as a fisherman - a huge catfish, that bit, leading him for miles, until it will not get tired and surrender. To do this, we must actually build a new and effective economic system during the war, which will provide the army with a continuous flow with the vast majority of the resources it needs. Without the latest economic system, it will be extremely difficult to implement such a strategy of warfare.
5. From previous point, it follows that this war is long. The sooner we realize this, the sooner we will win. The country needs to adjust to a marathon, that, Heaven forbid, not to invest all resources in the hundred meters, not to peg out at the exit of it, and not to fall into the hands of sober, enraged bear, which by definition outnumbers us.
6. Since war is going to last for a long time then the main task of those in the rear is to reform the economy and optimize processes in the nation. The sooner Ukraine will be in the future, the less chances there are for the past to “eat” us. We must differentiate ourselves from Russia, become fundamentally different, a country, which will shape the future or even be its personification by many parameters. Now we must not waste time. All processes in the nation must start moving faster.
