From the very beginning, everything went wrong for Putin. Therefore, on the move, several times, the Kremlin changes its goals and approaches in the war. At first, everything was to end in two weeks, then by the end of May. And now: "Let's pull to the last." This strategic "confusion", fortunately, deals a serious blow to the work of the Russian military machine and seriously contributes to our victory. However, today, May 9, it can be stated: Putin has outlined a strategy that is more the product of his military failure than his genius.
I called this strategy "I didn't lose". Yes, he did not win, but he did not lose. Its essence is that while the fighting continues - we can not say that the war is lost. Therefore, the "war in debt" is becoming a priority for Russia. The goal of such a war is not to win, because it is in itself a product of failure, the goal - to extort a favorable agreement. Putin is no longer relying on his army, but on the following factors:
1. Price and shortage of gas. It is clear that the "gas shock" is relevant only in winter. It is impossible to strike such a blow before. Therefore, cutting supplies and raising prices must seriously bring the EU and Ukraine to their knees.
2. Economic crisis. Russia has indeed been too integrated into the global economy. Putin relied on this when he started the war. He miscalculated in the reaction of the West, but this does not negate the economic consequences. Rising energy prices will lead to higher prices for many other products, and will obviously cause more than one bankruptcy by the end of the year.
3. Food crisis. The food crisis will start to be felt closer to autumn. The Middle East, Africa and Asia are particularly dependent on Ukrainian grain. It is predicted that this year's harvest may fall by 50% compared to 2021. This will create a threatening situation for some countries and will seriously affect the growth of world grain prices.
All these crises will become acute in November - December. This is exactly what Putin is counting on: the West will have to negotiate with him. Therefore, he translates the war into a long format. This will be expressed in the following.
1. In the coming days, the war at the front will be translated into the format of "creeping occupation". That is, the goal will be to take one settlement, not a massive attack by the front. The Russian forces are exhausted and, at most, they will try to surround Severodonetsk, Lysychansk and Rubizhne, and it is unlikely.
2. Transition to defense. Obviously, the Russians are waiting for our counterattack. It is already clear that they have begun to build fortifications on all captured frontiers. The blasting of bridges in the Kharkiv region further confirms that the goal of capturing Ukraine in two weeks has become the goal of defending the occupied territories.
3. Military economy. Putin will have to spend significant resources to continue fighting until November. Even with the abandonment of active hostilities, maintaining and securing such a horde will require significant resources. Therefore, I believe that manual decisions on the Russian economy will be made from July, and most of them will support the front.
This new strategy also determines our actions. Here is what we should do in such conditions.
1. An effective counterattack is the best solution to the situation. Increasing the losses of the Russian army, retreat - will seriously undermine Putin's plans. Any situation that can be perceived as a defeat will cause serious unrest in elite circles. However, if our counterattack is not so effective, we should focus on strikes without holding the territory. The loss of the occupier's soldiers and equipment reduces Putin's ability to play long.
2. Support for Western societies and focus on sanctions. We need to increase support for Ukraine in Western societies, not elites. Elites are sold either for money or for votes. Our goal is to have votes for Ukraine. This will not allow us to merge against the background of growing crises with the approach of winter.
Special focus on sanctions. They should not give Putin a chance to play in the long run. Against the background of the economic crisis, I think not one Orban wants to play a separate game with Putin. Attention is also paid to China and India, whose support will greatly help the Kremlin survive.
3. European integration. Of course, we will not become members of the EU immediately. But this does not prevent us from fully connecting to it. We urgently need to do this. The EU economy will perform the function of ventilation for ours. We need to integrate most areas of our lives before winter. Unfortunately, the economic crisis in the fall will be just awful. And she will not be able to get help. It is necessary to be tied to the EU in order not to fall. The rear holds the front.
Victory will be ours!