The concentration of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, as well as the reaction of Western politicians and experts to it, is a sign of the success of the Kremlin's cognitive war against the West.
Aware of the importance of geopolitical confrontation with China for the United States, the Kremlin, having knowledge of the enemy's values, using its representative system through verbal and nonverbal means, tries to force the geopolitical opponent to submit to Kremlin demands.
Recently, influential American experts have begun to publicly discuss the need for the Biden administration to subject all US alliances to a cost-benefit analysis to determine which ones improve America's national security and which ones run the risk of being involved in major conflicts. Therefore, in their view, the United States must inform Moscow and Beijing that America will not intervene in any potential wars for Taiwan and the former Soviet republics.
US military overstrain due to two geopolitical fronts prevents the US from effectively confronting China, so some US experts say the Biden administration should begin unilaterally withdrawing advanced forces from Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and South China. The US commitment to wage unconventional and potentially nuclear wars with Russia and China over countries that are not of vital interest to America poses more risks than good.
To break Russia's geopolitical alliance with China, US pro-Russian analysts are urging the Biden administration to withdraw from the United States in exchange for Russia's agreement to suspend Russian-Chinese military cooperation and mutual assistance. From the point of view of American pro-Kremlin "peacekeepers", the United States needs to start negotiations on a global sphere of influence with China and Russia. Russia's sphere of influence should include the former Soviet republics, Serbia, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Libya. China's sphere of influence should include Taiwan, North Korea, Pakistan, Afghanistan, the pro-communist countries of Southeast Asia, and African countries controlled by communist dictators. According to this proposal, US pro-US experts must keep Western Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand in their sphere of influence, which will be protected by America's "nuclear umbrella".
Paradoxically, American pro-Kremlin analysts believe that the new agreement on the division of the world into spheres of influence between the superpowers will strengthen US national security by reducing the threat to Moscow and Beijing. In their view, the lack of a common enemy for the Kremlin and China will lead to conflicts that will destroy their alliance.
American "peacekeepers" are convinced that in recent years Russia has achieved a nuclear advantage over the United States, which allows it to blackmail American leaders. In his speech to the US Congress in 2021, Admiral Charles Richard said: "If Russia invades Ukraine or other Eastern European countries while China invades Taiwan, the United States has no plans to confront the two allied nuclear superpowers in the coming war."
Back in 2018, the US National Defense Strategy Commission concluded that if the United States fights for the Baltic states with Russia, the US military could be decisively defeated. Geography and military balance contribute to Russia's successful military attack on Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states. In addition, members of the commission say the Kremlin could dare to use tactical nuclear weapons if NATO launches a successful counterattack.
Now in the United States, American pro-Russian "peacekeepers" are urging the Biden administration to reconsider the US commitment to the security of Eastern Europe, which they believe is not vital to American national interests. focus on the destruction of the Sino - Russian military alliance. American pro-Kremlin "peacekeepers" consider Germany to be their main ally in Europe, so withdrawing its forces from Europe, Africa and Asia, the United States must leave a limited number of American troops in Germany to deter Russian aggression against Western Europe, which is imortant for the US economy and industry.
The real icing on the cake is an article by the famous American political scientist Samuel Sharap, after reading which we can learn that the United States can not fight for Ukraine and that in order not to destabilize Europe because of Russia's aggression against our country, the Biden administration needs to put pressure on Kyiv to make Ukrainian authorities accept concessions to the Kremlin and change the unitary system to a confederate one.
The Kremlin is well aware that the majority of Ukrainians are opposed to granting special status to the temporarily occupied territories and the federalization of Ukraine. All opinion polls confirm that the vast majority of Ukrainians are supporters of Ukraine's unitarity. Therefore, the Russian authorities, knowing this, are trying to use useful idiots in the United States and Europe to put pressure on the Ukrainian government, which aims to obtain consent from Zelenskyy to grant special status to certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions occupied by Russia. Zelensky's decision would result in a split in society and a third Maidan in Ukraine provoked by Western useful idiots. In this case, anti-Western sentiment among Ukrainians who believe that the West has betrayed them will intensify. Therefore, concessions on the special status of the ORDLO are impossible if, of course, the Ukrainian authorities are not going to commit political suicide, which will destabilize our country, which the Chekist corporation is sure to take advantage of.
For those Ukrainians who underestimate the Russian threat, a real "cold rain" should be the assessment of the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the former commander of the US military contingent in Europe, Ben Hodges. According to the lieutenant general, large-scale losses among Russian servicemen could stop Russia's aggression against our country, but in his opinion, Ukraine does not have enough forces to do so. Ben Hodges believes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, unfortunately, are not ready for a maneuverable war, because they are accustomed to a static form of war in the Donbas. Russia's full-scale aggression, according to Ben Hodges, will be aimed at paralyzing Ukraine through cyberattacks, air strikes, ground operations and hybrid actions. The Kremlin's goal during this military operation will not be to occupy all of Ukraine, but to impose on the West the narrative that the Ukrainian state is not self-sufficient, so its support is hopeless.
The point of view of the experts of the well-known American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) cannot be ignored. According to the think tank, European countries do not have high-quality military capabilities to fight Russia, and the Nord Stream-2 pipeline is almost complete, so Russia has gained economic and political leverage over Germany, so Russian leaders may believe that there was little political will in Europe and the United States to help Ukraine in the war. U.S. analysts are also convinced that Russian forces, namely the 41st Combined Field Army and the 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, will capture Kyiv in a matter of hours, so the United States must initiate destructive sanctions and convince the Kremlin that Russia's aggression against Ukraine will deepen political isolation of Russia.
Ukrainians should understand that leading American experts believe that the West should support the insurgent movement in Ukraine if it is occupied by the Russian occupiers. In fact, American experts are proposing to the Biden administration to turn Ukraine into a second "Afghanistan" for Russia, using the tactics of guerrilla warfare "death from a thousand cuts" against it. It is very unfortunate that American analysts do not take into account the fact that the relief of Afghanistan and Ukraine differs significantly, because it is impossible to wage an effective guerrilla war on the plains against Russian invaders.
The Russian government is well aware that in case of Ukrainian occupation, it will be forced to control a disloyal population, because Ukrainians are carriers of a completely different political culture than Russians. The occupation of Ukraine will also destroy the Moscow-Berlin-Paris axis that the Kremlin seeks to create, so Vladimir Putin is unlikely to start a full-scale war against Ukraine until Nord Stream 2 certification and the French presidential election, which is heavily relied on, are completed. .
The current geopolitical game of the Kremlin is aimed primarily at obtaining concessions from the West and testing the United States, NATO and the EU on how they will act in case of a full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine. It is the weakness of the West and its constant readiness for dialogue that the Kremlin sees as an invitation to act aggressively towards Ukraine. By provoking an energy crisis with the help of Western politicians, the Kremlin has been able to strike at Ukrainian industry at high gas prices, resulting in an economic crisis and chaos that Russia will use to subdue Ukraine. No wonder Mykola Patrushev in an interview with the newspaper "Arguments and Facts" said that the Western protectorate has destroyed our economy, in fact, he hinted that the next full-scale military aggression by Russia will be positioned by the Kremlin as "helping" fraternal people suffering from actions of "pro-Western puppets" who are in power.
When representatives of the Biden administration oppose the introduction of tougher sanctions by Congress against Russia's Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline, because such a decision could worsen relations with Germany, an important ally of America, I would like to finally hear from them what Ukraine is for the USA?