Leaked video of Trukhin, de facto, is the start of election campaign in the country. Globally it doesn't matter whether it will end with early elections to the Rada in 2022 or it won't. The main thing is that the majority of players, without even knowing it, according to their small logic, launched irreversible processes of the war of all against all, and only for themselves. It is crucially important aspect of "every man for himself": now no alliances and temporary unions are possible. It is the war of all against all where actions or counteractions do not correspond with general collective aim but with exclusively personal motives of not only key Actors, and also performers of different levels, including intermediate and below average levels.
But let's get back to what is happening to us and what to expect .
In my opinion, we should start with the question "In which country do we live in?”
On the first view, the answer is simple: corruption, underdeveloped, etc. But I would like something clarify some aspects with terminology offered in the book that I recommend to everyone: "Violence and Public Order" by Douglas North, John Wallis, Barry Weingest. In short, we live in the so-called natural state based on personal relationship. In its turn, this type of state is divided into three types : short-term, basic and mature. In order not to resort to long terminological stories, in short, the lowest level is completely patron-client relationships that form quasi-legal or simply illegal networks, which are the basis of violence in the state. Basic natural states form and support longterm organizational structure of the state, but based on personal relations, which are the basis of state formation. Mature is it the highest stage of natural states where law operates, but state violence in many ways is based on personal relationship. Well, finally, to complete with the theory, the highest degree is creation of impersonal states, but it's not about us, yet, therefore, I will not talk about it now.
So where are we? Unfortunately, for many the latter years (as for me since 2003) we are balancing on the bottom point ща basic states with partial rolling down to short-term states with all consequences (so far, we completely we rolled down to the short term states once in 2013-14, in the last months of Yanukovych's rule).
In 2014 and 2019 we had a chance if not building elements of impersonal states, but at least move to the stage of mature natural state, and this did not happen for a number of reasons, but the most important: the fear of elites consolidation. Poroshenko's time was an eternal bargaining (not dialogue, but bargaining of elites, as a result basic part of these elites migrated to another seller in this market), at the time of Zelensky, we fastly passed from elements of dialogue to the military actions (not war, but namely military actions) of all against all.
As a result, we have the current situation that leads to further atomization of elites in search of theur rents, lack of any coordinating actions of the states, sporadic combat actions that are rather guerrilla warfare than a total war against a certain oligarch. The oligarchs or conditional oligarchs also fight for themselves only, in parallel putting eggs in different baskets. Everyone plays for himself and everyone plays a game: return (win back) your possible rent rate for the future. There is no more talk about meanings. We are at war of one-step combinations, where the main prize is winning a monopoly on rent in one or another industry.
If earlier, in 2019-20 logics of struggle between the state apparatus and the opposition was reduced to the formula: "resonant topic or a problem - power offers hype topic that interrupts initial topic - authorities lead the hype discussion and the topic dissolves - new problems appear", now we have entered the stage of the war of all against all, and only for ourselves. I repeat: there was a great atomization during this war, when the conditional major of the conditional DBR, National anti-corruption bureau of Ukraine or Economic Security Bureau is not less significant player than conditional minister or the Attorney General.
Let's briefly sum up the rules and objectives of this war:
1. Everyone play for themselves and the main goal is preservation (restoration, expansion ) of rent. This is the strategic goal. And it requires the same energy no matter whether the fight is about extra hundred million or a thousand of dollars.
2. The key role is given to informational killers and traitors. They are the main actors of this theater. Form and eloquence dominate the content.
3. Country holds primarily on the red lines of 2019-2020 sample. And this the main positive.
4. No one has the economic strategy and society does not want to discuss it (ratings of TV channels fall on such discussions)
5. Tactical victory means the victory in the local mess. The aim of political life is to challenge the opponents in order to distract them from political actions against yourself.
Do we have a future in this paradigm? Yes, if there will be no systematic fight against us. At the same time it is difficult to build the system due to the absolute decentralization of traitors.
But, for any circumstances, it can not last long. And, unfortunately, the elections that have started do not suppose answers to these questions. The main topic of the following elections: the rent and personal right to violence .
And the last. Trukhin, Kobolev, Kuzmin, Sitnik, Venediktova and everyone are only elements in the war of all against all and for themselves. Simply some of them will come to mind of a voter in the voting booth, and some won't. And this is their political mission in the current coordinate system.
You better think!