On the ninety-seventh day of the war, everything goes as expected: the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gradually retreating in Severodonetsk and, apparently, will leave the city within the next few days. However, there are good chances to catch on in Lisichansk, which has a much more advantageous position (it is on a hill) compared to Severodonetsk. I am glad that so far there is no direct threat of encirclement. So everything is more or less under control.
Like yesterday, good news comes from the south. There, the Armed Forces of Ukraine crossed the Ingulets River and created a bridgehead for further offensive. There is an optimistic scenario that there will be enough strength to reach Novaya Kakhovka. If this happens, then a large grouping of Russian troops may actually be surrounded.
But in general, so far nothing critical has happened in either direction. There is a war going on. Which, against our will, has become a routine in our minds and we have already got used to all these reports, and now we know where Lisichansk is, where Popasnaya is, where Gulyai-Pole is, and where Bakhmut is.
In short, I won’t tell you anything particularly interesting here, since only a military specialist, which, of course, I am not, can explain all sorts of tricky details. And I've painted the big picture for you.
Let me tell you better about Germany. Here I see in Ukraine everyone is scratching their heads: why is Scholz behaving so strangely? It seems that he has the full support of the Bundestag, great sympathy and solidarity with Ukraine of the German people, the press insists on massive deliveries of heavy weapons to the Ukrainian army. That is, he has a complete carte blanche. And he pulls the rubber. His explanations are nothing but laughter. And in general (especially from Ukraine) the situation looks wild.
But here in Germany, the press, in general, has already explained why he behaves so strangely and, I would even say, suicidal behavior.
Now I will try to briefly state what the essence of the matter is. Two years ago, there was a big scandal in Germany: the financial company Wirecard went bankrupt: it turned out that it had been forging its financial statements for a long time and, in the end, drew 1.9 billion euros that did not exist in reality on its balance sheet.
It was a big scandal, because for a long time it was believed that Wirecard was a big and dynamic company with brilliant management and good prospects. It was one of the top 30 companies in Germany and was one of the companies that form the DAX stock index. Merkel lobbied for it in negotiations with the Chinese and promoted it in the Chinese market, and so on.
The auditors (Ernst&Young) "didn't notice" any problems for several years. But most importantly, the financial regulator BaFin did not notice them. And only after the Financial Times had already raised a cry, BaFin stirred and hired an independent auditor (KPMG), who discovered this huge hole in the balance sheet.
So, BaFin is directly subordinate to the Ministry of Finance. And the Minister of Finance at that time was Olaf Scholz. And, of course, at the hearings in the Bundestag about this scandal, he was interrogated. He, of course, could not say anything intelligible in his defense. He bleated something like "we will improve", "we need to pay serious attention", "I understand your concern", etc.
There were persistent rumors in the press that Scholz was suspiciously condescending towards Wirecard, but then the scandal subsided, the pandemic story began, then the elections to the Bundestag, so this matter died out.
But! There is one important nuance here: one of the top managers of Wirecard, Jan Marsalek, turned out to be a Russian spy (GRU) and, in the midst of a scandal, fled through Belarus to Russia, taking with him almost the entire Wirecard archive.
And there, in this archive, all the confidential information on all sorts of "sensitive" payments. It remains only to guess what lies in this Pandora's box.
So now the German press is putting forward a version that Scholz's "strange" behavior is due to the fact that Marsalek (and therefore the Kremlin) keeps this archive to himself. And that his inaction in the Wirecard case, when he was finance minister, was not self-serving. And that now Putin is holding him by the balls.
Again, this is just a version. But the scandal is picking up again. The press is boiling. And some parliamentarians are already demanding to start hearings in the Bundestag again and call Olaf Scholz to them.
Scholz has no choice in this situation: either he will start massive deliveries of weapons to Ukraine, or he will only aggravate suspicions against him. Opposition Christian Democrats rub their hands happily: it seems that not today - tomorrow (if Scholz does not change his mind) they have a good chance of destroying the Traffic Light coalition and at least replacing it with Jamaica (with Merz (CDU / CSU) in the chancellor's chair ), and how to achieve early elections as much as possible. Moreover, the CDU / CSU now has excellent ratings.
This is all the more real since the socialists' junior partners in the ruling coalition (Greens and Free Democrats) actively support the supply of arms to Ukraine and are perplexed about Scholz's position.
All this adds up to the fact that Scholz was the ruling burgomaster of Hamburg, and Hamburg was twinned with St. Petersburg. And he went there many times. He was also General Secretary of the SPD when Schröder (SPD) was Chancellor of Germany. And all this is now dumped into one heap where Scholz can be buried...
In short, we have fun here and we are optimistic about the prospects for the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine.
So everything will be fine, and Germany, in addition to financial and other assistance (which it already provides), will still supply tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and self-propelled guns to Ukraine.
Believe me: Germany is a good country. And normal, good people live in it. With normal ideas about good and evil. That is why they support Ukraine. Because our cause is right. The enemy will be defeated. Victory will be ours.
Glory to Ukraine!