Looking at the latest news, one may get the impression that Zelenskyy has already been written off and the time of his rule is not even a month, but a week.
So what's really going on?
Disposition of forces in the country
1. Avakov's statement about the creation of a political force with Razumkov, Groysman, Lyashko and even Tymoshenko should not be seen as an announcement of a new political project, but as calls to create a tough opposition to Zelenskyy. So far, the main players are quite careful in their statements and do not climb into battle with an open visor. Be that as it may, the center of this opposition is not Razumkov or Avakov. The basis is Rinat Akhmetov, who for the first time since 2005 launched a direct attack on the incumbent President. At the same time, they are afraid to fight Akhmetov on Bankova Street and are still continuing their old line: Poroshenko is to blame for everything.
2. It is important to distinguish two lines of attacks (often uncoordinated) on Zelenskyy: it is an attack on Yermak as a person who replaces the President. And an attack on the non-binding nature of the decisions of the National Security and Defense Council. After the unrestrained planes, as far as I know, an investigation will now be launched into how Medvedchuk preserved and renamed the gas station network.
3. Today, most of those who can be considered the economic elite are frozen in anticipation (where the scales will swing), but most begin to think about Zelenskyy's second term and understand: in the first year of the second term (in case of re-election) he will have unlimited power.
4. In fact, now there is one person who may be interested in a relatively strong Zelenskyy - it's Kolomoisky. For him, Zelenskyy is a guarantee of his future. Although he definitely doesn't need a very strong Zelenskyy.
Disposition on Bankova
1. Results of all last by-elections immerse inhabitants of Bankova in a warm bath where they seem to know how to win elections
2. Currently, Bankova is looking for a replacement for the NSDC show with something similar. I emphasize that we are not talking about breakthroughs, changes or something like that: we are talking about a "Growing billion trees - 2".
3. The change of government is postponed until the economic situation deteriorates so much that someone will have to be flushed down the toilet. There is no anticipation of the game and it is not expected.
4. There is no talk about personnel changes in the president's office at all. So far, this question is taboo.
5. The 2022 budget is not considered key for 2023-24, when something can be done during the elections. The only calculation for large-scale construction.
Scenarios of the Office of the President
1. Bankova will do nothing and go on looking for replacement of the show "National Security and Defense Council". And here is the situation with probability 50\50 same as chances to meet a dragon on Khreshchatyk: we shall either meet it or not. If a new successful series will be found, the situation will improve. They will not find - the rating will fall apart. So far, the only opinion that everyone likes: to start changes to the Constitution, although the answer to the question of what will be the system of governing the country simply does not exist.
2. Negotiations with Akhmetov will begin on Bankova through Kolomoisky and an armistice will be agreed. While Akhmetov's votes in parliament are not critical, they are not ready for direct conflicts in the OP. There is a possibility that Kolomoisky may become a mediator. However, this story will involve a significant loss of the President's subjectivity.
3. "Fighting" actions of the office against Akhmetov will begin. Meanwhile the Office is evaluating all the pros and cons. The fact is that you can start a war, but someone will emerge victorious. But not starting this war for Zelenskyy will mean losing almost everything.
External factors
Currently, there are two key threats: possible rapprochement with Russia due to the energy crisis and a complete misunderstanding by the collective West of internal Ukrainian processes (simply put, the G-7 continues to build a policy of pressure through anti-corruption bodies (while rating of mistrust is 67-68%) and through loyal but deeply compromised expert community). And it seems that in Glasgow, in the margins of the climate summit, Zelensky was explained the inevitability of this scenario, but so far we have not heard from the Foreign Ministry or the Office about the intensification of negotiations on the agreements we were told about in Washington on September, 1st.
Let's focus on the first threat in more detail.
1. Putin clearly demonstrates that he will deal with Zelensky only in the event of a complete surrender.
2. In our information space a great narrative will now be launched of how to profit from Swiss gas pads and how to return to a direct gas contract with Gazprom, given the power outage and the failed policy of Poroshenko and his successor Zelenskyy (people still do not care where gas comes from if they feel warm)
3. Putin will play in 2023-24 and he will play on the splits in Ukrainian politics and will put chaos with all its consequences (the situation with anti-vaccinees is one of the elements).
4. Putin's key task is to get anyone who wins the election to come to him and ask for help. And, the current political aggravation is playing into his hands: everyone is thinking about political wars, instead of thinking: how will we live from 31.12.24, when there will not be a single cubic meter of Russian gas in our pipeline.
Based on the scenarios of Bankova and the main actors, the issues of Russia's strategy and external threats in general are on the periphery. We are entering a period of global uncontrolled turbulence, with so many unknowns that it is incredibly difficult to predict anything.
Exit from apathy
However, there is another point: society is gradually beginning to emerge from the apathy that was dominant in 2020-21. Apathy always ends in either even greater apathy or aggression. Now aggression is channeled into the war of vaccinators against anti-vaccines. But we can already say that these wars are beginning to turn into political debates. Apparently, the gas and energy theme may also soon become the same source of aggressive energy.
The main players believe that they will be able to channel this aggression into the electoral channel and promote their candidates through TV. Many now believe that whoever leads the war against Zelenskyy will become the next president.
At the same time, through social networks, another discourse will be imposed: "a protege of one oligarch changes a protege of another oligarch." And there can be no doubt that the war for the title of the only neoligarchic candidate will begin in parallel.
But all this will not matter if in this war, the first, second and third only way out of the situation is to bow to Putin.
