Undoubtedly, the main political news in Ukraine, not only this week, but also since the beginning of the year, was the return of ex-president Poroshenko from a “foreign tour”, as he himself calls it. Many wondered whether Poroshenko would dare to return to the country in the face of the threat of being taken into custody and sent to a pre-trial detention center. Especially after his cowardly escape from the DBR (State Bureau of Investigation) investigators, who tried to serve him a summon at the walls of the Verkhovna Rada in December.
But, apparently, having rested and calmed down, after listening to the arguments of his lawyers about the weak evidence base of the prosecution, and also quite possibly enlisting the support of his "Western partners", Poroshenko decided to return. And not just return, but also earn additional political points by arranging a real performance from the return with extras from his ardent fans at the airport and under the walls of the Pechersk Court.
They even set up a stage not far from the exit from the Zhuliany airport . So, even before his visit to the Pechersk court, Poroshenko managed to make a speech to a small group of his supporters, while the journalists of his “former” TV channels counted as many as 15 thousand.
If we talk about the conclusions that can be drawn from the results of Poroshenko's return to Ukraine and two meetings of the Pechersk Court, where the judge from the second attempt decided on a measure of restraint, then I would highlight several important points.
Firstly, Poroshenko himself, as well as his team, made a well-prepared performance with a return and can definitely take it to their asset. It is already obvious that Poroshenko's political technologists decided to seize the moment and supplement the political image of Poroshenko. If earlier he himself tried to position himself as a real “hetman”, “icebreaker”, a wise and strong ruler who alone opposes both external and internal aggression, now with the help of Zelensky himself and his entourage he will now be positioned as a victim political repression and persecution.
I specifically tracked the arrival of Poroshenko on his native Channel 5. Of course, it was difficult to listen to all the narratives of the so-called "porohobots" (political slang, contemptuous definition of those who actively supports Poroshenko - ed) who voiced the new theses of Poroshenko's political technologists. In general, the attempt to arrest Poroshenko for creating schemes for buying coal in tandem with Medvedchuk and representatives of the occupation administrations is a joint special operation between Putin and his protege Zelensky. It is nothing more than revenge and reprisal for Poroshenko's revival of the Ukrainian army, the repulse of Russian aggression in 2014-15, the law on language and, of course, the Tomos . The saddest thing is that a significant part of the “core electorate” of Poroshenko unquestioningly believes everything that they are told by the speakers of European Solidarity, and even more so by Poroshenko himself.
It is also a long-known fact that Poroshenko’s political technologists initially relied on the split of society, the isolation of Poroshenko’s electorate into a special caste of the elected, the most spiritually developed and most educated representatives of the nation (the same 25%), opposing themselves to the so-called Russian-speaking “quilted jackets” yearning for the USSR. They consider them to be the scum. Naturally, not everyone who voted for Poroshenko in 2019 shares such views, and among them there are quite moderate and tolerant people who do not share such extreme views. But those in general are, unfortunately, outnumbered in our society.
Politicians, and even more so political technologists, are always extremely cynical in their actions and tasks and try to attract as many supporters as possible to their side. And it is always easier to do this on the basis of negativity and inciting hatred towards opponents. Emotions are the opposite of rationality and therefore people very often forget and forgive the mistakes of their leaders, as this is tantamount to admitting their own mistakes and miscalculations. And not everyone is capable of this. It is no coincidence that Poroshenko's supporters are often called a "sect". After all, so much compromising information about Poroshenko has already appeared over the past three years, and his support has at least not decreased, if you look at the results of the first round of the presidential election. Well, the party rating after the last parliamentary elections did grow.
So now Poroshenko will at least activate his supporters and even try to increase support among the so-called “electoral swamp”, which in Ukraine makes up about 50% of the population. And by the way, if the socio-economic situation in Ukraine continues to worsen against the backdrop of rising inflation, rising prices for basic food products, which spur high gas prices for their producers and fuel prices, then he is quite capable of doing this. Of course, within certain limits, shaped by the rejection of the story "Army, Language , Faith" by the majority of the population, but nonetheless.
Now his political consultants are already trying to position him as the only opposition leader who defends the interests of all citizens who either initially did not accept Zelensky or had time to become disillusioned with him. First of all, in the western regions of Ukraine, where Zelensky also won everywhere, with the exception of the Lviv region.
Secondly, the government itself acted extremely indecisively in these important days. Because it is already obvious that the authorities have made the main bet on the arrest of Poroshenko in order to divert the attention of the population from the rapidly unfolding economic crisis due to the inability of the vast majority of manufacturers to maintain the profitability of their products at current gas prices in Ukraine.
And the rapid devaluation of the hryvnia against the dollar is also a marker. After all, during protracted holidays, people mostly sell their foreign exchange reserves in order to celebrate the holidays well, and bankers have always skillfully used this, artificially lowering the dollar during the New Year holidays.
The network actively featured information that the DBR immediately wanted to take Poroshenko into custody upon arrival and bring him to court. But, allegedly, while the border guards were arguing with the DBR, who should detain him and bring him to court, Poroshenko successfully retreated.
Thirdly, an indirect confirmation that the President's Office did not have a clear plan of action and everything was decided "on the fly" is the decision of the Pechersk Court to postpone the hearing to January 19. This is despite the fact that the Pechersk Court has long acquired the aura of its tendentiousness and dependence on the current government. It was in it that Tymoshenko and Lutsenko were sentenced to imprisonment, and even under Poroshenko, the most resonant cases with political overtones were also considered in it.
That is, even the judges, who may be under the control of Bankova, still did not dare to issue a decision on keeping Poroshenko in a pre-trial detention center. Which indicates that they either did not let him down from above, or the arguments of the prosecution are too weak, as well as the authorities as a whole. And the risks, if it changes soon, are too high. Or maybe all the factors combined.
In principle, based on the analyzes of professional lawyers and lawyers that I managed to get acquainted with, the evidence base of the DBR and the SBU really raises too many questions and the case may crumble in court. Even in Pechersky, given the media resonance and the weakness of the Zelensky regime. Apparently, Poroshenko also understands this. His team is closely monitoring the lawsuits against Poroshenko’s likely partner in the coal trade with ORDLO and expired diesel for the Ukrainian army from the oil pipeline, which Medvedchuk got during his presidency. And it is too far from guilty verdicts, and the evidence base is also very weak.
In addition, unlike Medvedchuk , Poroshenko's supporters are distinguished by their activity, passionarity and are ready to go out to mass protests, even if Poroshenko would be sent to a pre-trial detention center. Not to mention a prison sentence. There are also the necessary financial resources for this in the form of tons of officially declared cash, specially prepared for such a case.
In addition, the West is extremely skeptical about such a scenario, which was already voiced by the British Ambassador on the eve of the court session. In a situation where the American and European media almost every day write that Putin is about to attack, and that the families of Russian diplomats have allegedly already begun to be taken out of Ukraine, which is usually done after the decision to invade has already been made, such internal political struggle is clearly not appropriate. And more than once it has become the reason for the defeat of Ukraine in the struggle for its statehood in the face of external threats. The last time we took this lesson was a little over 100 years ago. How it all ended for Petlyura, Skoropadsky and the Ukrainian People's Republic, I will not remind.
Well, the “icing on the cake” was the decision of the Pechersk court to issue an even milder decision to Poroshenko than to Medvedchuk his possible accomplice in the coal trade with the temporarily occupied territories. The Pechersk Court of Kyiv decided not to arrest the fifth president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, but released him on a personal obligation to appear in court or for interrogation on first demand. And this is despite the fact that the former president is accused of high treason!
Blinken to Kyiv at exactly the hour "H" for Poroshenko, which became known only a day before the visit from anonymous sources, was a coincidence, but it is likely that this had a certain impact on the judges before the adoption solutions.
Such a decision shows that even the judges of the infamous Pechersky Court understand that Zelensky's legitimacy is at its lowest point since 2019. Let me remind you that lawyers had a lot of comments and complaints about the legitimacy of Zelensky’s decision to announce early parliamentary elections in the summer of 2019. But, nevertheless, the Constitutional Council approved it after Zelensky's stunning victory in the second round of the presidential election and the highest level of support for Zelensky in society. Now, the judges of the Pechersk Court, not wanting to repeat the fate of their former colleague Rodion Kireev, who passed the verdicts on Tymoshenko and Lutsenko, decided to play it safe.
It is symbolic that to celebrate the first victory in a battle, but not in a war, Poroshenko went to the Tsarskoe Selo restaurant, which is located next to the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra - the stronghold of the "Russian world" according to Poroshenko's most radical supporters. Very symbolic, by the way. It clearly demonstrates the duplicity of the fifth Poroshenko, who considers such a step possible, as well as his excessive self-confidence in front of his voters. As they say: "God's dew!".
So, summing up the results of Poroshenko's return to Ukraine and the decision of the Pechersk Court as a result of the suppression, we can confidently say that in the media and political terms, he has clearly won so far. And Zelensky's image will take another hit like a lame duck. The logic of the political jungle that Ukraine still is after Poroshenko’s 144 reforms, including the judicial one, says: “If you decide to declare war on a strong opponent, you must be decisive in your actions and go to the end. Otherwise you will be eaten."
And to start a war against everyone at once, when the concentration of Russian troops continues near your borders, and all the Western media write almost every day that Putin will definitely attack tomorrow - this is at least stupid. But in reality, it only increases the vulnerability of society to the threat of a possible invasion, the split in which, as a result of political confrontation, is only growing. I’m not talking about the fact that the temptation for the Kremlin to get involved in a new adventure and “bite off” a new piece of territory against the backdrop of the indecision of the West, which still cannot agree among themselves on possible sanctions in the event of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is only increasing.
When the enemy saber rattling and announces more and more exercises near your borders with an imitation of an invasion, and stronger players behind your back continue to raise the stakes in negotiations, all political fights should fade into the background and the authorities need to unite society into one fist. So that the aggressor has no doubt that in the event of an invasion, he will face fierce and prepared resistance.