Today I want to analyze the situation that we have been observing in recent days on the border of Belarus with Poland. When crowds of migrants from the Middle East storm the Polish border, trying to overcome the barbed wire fence. All this is being watched by armed employees of law enforcement agencies and special services of Belarus. More and more information and versions appear in the media that such actions are intentional and prepared. That migrants from the Middle East are coordinated and prepared to break through the Polish border in advance in special refugee camps on the territory of Belarus.
It is difficult to say how much this corresponds to reality without clear evidence. But it is obvious that without the control and approval of the Belarusian authorities, this would be impossible in principle. Then it is worth asking a reasonable question: what is Lukashenko trying to achieve by such actions? And isn't this a proven technology?
The first thing that catches the eye and indicates that such events are not accidental is their repetition. As we remember, we have already observed a similar picture, albeit on a smaller scale, this summer on the border of Belarus with Lithuania. Then the Ukrainian leadership even decided to hand over barbed wire to the Lithuanian government to equip the border with Belarus, which simply did not have enough of it.
The technology to create chaos on the border with the EU turned out to be successful, and now the leadership of Belarus has decided to repeat it with Poland. But on a larger scale. These are mainly citizens from Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, who arrive in Minsk, and then try to enter Poland on foot, and then to Germany.
The technology, in fact, is not new and is not an invention of Lukashenko, but was successfully developed in 2015. Then these were refugees from Syria who stormed the borders to neighboring Turkey, then moved to Greece, the Balkan countries and then to the same rich and prosperous Germany, which provides the newly arrived refugees with benefits and a roof over their heads.
It is no coincidence that after the EU migration crisis, which the Kremlin was accused of, relations between Brussels and Moscow improved, and Putin emerged from international isolation and returned to the negotiating table with Western leaders.
So Lukashenko decided not to reinvent the wheel and thus is trying to realize several goals and objectives at once:
First, to take revenge on the governments of Poland and the Baltic countries for attempting a coup d'etat and overthrowing him from the throne in the summer of 2020 with the help of massive protests after rigged presidential elections. As we well remember, the former chief editor of the Nexta telegram channel Roman Protasevich, who was arrested after the forced landing of the Ryanair board in Minsk after “friendly communication” in the KGB dungeons with the Cerberus regimes of Lukashenko's regime, confessed and fully confirmed the original version of the Belarusian dictator that all these protests were inspired by the special services of Poland and Lithuania.
Now that Lukashenko not only withstood, but also strengthened his own power, having cleaned out all the remnants of the opposition in the country over the past time, he decided to move on to the next stage - revenge. As we know, the attitude towards migrants from Muslim countries in Poland is extremely negative and even during the first migration wave in 2015, the Polish government refused to accept refugees "according to EU quotas" on its territory, having gone into open conflict with Brussels.
Secondly, creating a new wave of the migration crisis on the border with Poland, Lukashenko is trying to put pressure on Germany as the most important player in the EU, which has a decisive voice in Brussels. After all, all these migrants from Poland are then trying to get to the richest country in the European Union. For this, the most opportune moment was chosen when Angela Merkel is preparing after many years to hand over the reins of power to her successor as German Chancellor. After all, it was she who made the decision to impose sanctions against the Lukashenko regime. So inspiring the migration crisis, which, of course, can negatively affect the level of support for the future new Chancellor Scholz, Lukashenko is trying to put pressure on him and start relations from a “blank slate”.
Thirdly, it is difficult to imagine that such a special operation is carried out without, at least, the approval of the Kremlin, which in the West in 2015 was accused of instigating the migration crisis in the EU after the massive bombing of Russian aviation in the city of Aleppo, the refugees from which made up the bulk of the flow. migrants from Syria to Turkey. Thus, the Kremlin is trying to force the EU to accelerate the certification of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline, while refusing to increase gas supplies to the EU through Ukraine and provoking a shortage of gas reserves and an increase in gas prices on the EU spot exchanges.
The fact that after the imposition of sanctions against the Lukashenko regime, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus fell into complete dependence on the Kremlin, having lost the room for maneuver in the West, which he skillfully used in the period 2015-2020, is an obvious fact.
So, summing up, we can conclude that provoking migration crises from the Middle East, where conflicts occur, has already become a lever of pressure on the EU and an element of a "hybrid war" on the part of authoritarian and dictatorial regimes in the post-Soviet space. And I am sure that this crisis, given its effectiveness, is not the last one.
Now we see an attempt on the part of Belarus and the Kremlin, which also considers the Polish leadership as its enemy, to provoke the Polish border guards and military, who are already being pulled to the borders to Belarus, to open fire on refugees. In order to follow with the seeding of horrifying footage of the shooting of "peaceful and unarmed" refugees and accuse the Polish leadership of human rights violations and inhuman actions. So, we are closely monitoring the situation. Polish law enforcement agencies regard the situation at their borders as an emergency for a reason.