On the likelihood of a large-scale Russian offensive against Ukraine. The Ukrainian post

Carlson to Smidge

- “Are you scared? I am not!"

This is a detailing and continuation of the 2014 forecasts "On the formation of a broad anti-Russian coalition" and the 2019 forecast "On the armed confrontation with Russia and the preservation of Ukraine's neutrality ."

We live from hysteria to hysteria - a new strain of coronavirus is approaching, and we will all die, if not in this wave of the epidemic, then in the next one, the power system will collapse, we will all freeze, if not this winter, then the next. Putin will attack, if not tomorrow, then next month. We will analyze this Putin syndrome.

Russia has already launched an offensive, and not against Ukraine, but against Western Europe by means of gas blackmail. 26% of the gas storage filling facilities of Gazprom in Europe as of November 5, a sharp restriction of gas pumping through the Yamal-Western Europe gas pipeline with the onset of frosty weather is not about Ukraine. Putin's ultimatum is also, mostly not about Ukraine.

Wars don't just start like that. There is always a combination of short, medium and long term factors. Why has the Russian offensive against the former West been launched just now? It is the combination of three factors:

Seasonal factor - short term factor
The factor of the inclusive capitalism illusion and green transition collapse - short-term
The factor of inflation, as the first stage of the financial mega-collapse is a medium-term factor

The main medium-term problem of the countries of the former West is out of control inflation. The completely discredited green transition and inclusive capitalism can be noted . You can bring more fuel from outside Russia. You can lift stupid environmental bans, like the ban on the construction of new nuclear power plants. But inflation is not easily overcome. The FRS measures to overcome inflation are clearly insufficient and are not being implemented. For example, after the announcement of plans to tighten the monetary policy, the Fed ... sharply increased the purchase of assets. So the coming financial mega-collapse of the countries of the former West became obvious to the general public. It would be strange if Putin did not take advantage of this.

So, galloping inflation and the upcoming mega-collapse are perceived by Western strategists as an extremely unfavorable time for a confrontation with Russia. At this time, in their opinion, one should shout loudly, wave his arms and beat oneself in the chest, but in every possible way to avoid a real military aggravation. And if it is inevitable, let it happen on the distant approaches to their countries. In this tactic, Ukraine is assigned the role of a convenient foreground - a convenient place for confrontation, which is not a pity. So the former West now benefits from a Moscow usurper attacking Ukraine rather than directly aggravating the confrontation between Russia and the former West. In this case, the Ukrainian foreground is also a strategic swamp in which the usurper will get bogged down head over heels.

Even the most stubborn Russians have long understood that Ukraine is a strategic swamp similar to how Switzerland turned out to be a strategic swamp for both the Habsburgs and the Burgundians. Like any strategic swamp, it is easy to enter Ukraine, but it is very difficult to get out. Therefore, the Western tactics of luring Putin into a strategic swamp will not work now. The Russians perfectly see the development of a systemic crisis in the former West and are simply waiting for the collapse to begin and the countries of the former West in convulsions after the mega-collapse will surrender themselves to the Moscow usurper without a fight. The logic of Russian strategists is not to go further into the Ukrainian swamp, where the former West is pushing them. What's the point in Ukraine when you can just wait and gain control over, for example, Germany, France, Greece and Italy? The stakes are going up and the tactics of redirecting the attack of the Moscow dictator to the swampy foreground is not working.

But this works if take into consideration long-term and medium-term factors. But there are also long-term ones, which neither Russian nor Western strategists know about yet. They think that the observed dramatic change in the price ratios between high-tech, mid-tech, energy and food due to the collapse of the green transition illusion, scarcity, inflation and Putin's blackmail is short-term. But they do not see long-term reasons behind short-term industry reasons. First of all, the outbreak of civilizational turmoil, which in 2009 I called the Second Thirty Years War and, as a consequence, changes in the main criterion of long-term competitiveness. My predictive article about was released in 2012. And it changes everything fundamentally - now there are not just temporary difficulties associated with pandemic, inflation, deficit and the collapse of the green transition, but the loss of long-term competitiveness of yesterday's leading developed countries. A flock of black swans flew in and what seemed like a new normal yesterday turned out to be banal bubbles that began to burst one after another. Forget the logic of the 2014 war - now everything has changed! Then the aggressor wanted to establish control over Ukraine in order to solve his internal problems. So the war of 2014 was within the framework of our post-Soviet turmoil, which began back in 1991. And now, hostilities will begin within the framework of a similar global Thirty Years War that began in 2020. If we now act in the logic of the 2014 war, then this will again be preparation for the last war. The civilizational logic of war, for which again no one has prepared:

This is not a war, but a turmoil in which the contradictions within countries will be almost as sharp as between countries.
Countries with favorable conditions will oppose countries with unfavorable ones. So the winner is known in advance.
In conditions of an extreme deficit of funding, a significant primitivization of military affairs is inevitable.

As a result, the only way for the former developed countries that found themselves in unfavorable civilizational conditions to soften the course of their turmoil and, perhaps to avoid collapse, is the beginning of a large-scale development of undeveloped spaces at the achieved technological level of territories with favorable conditions. As soon as it reaches the United States, Germany, France and other countries that the stake is their survival, they themselves will go on the offensive not only against Russia, but also against the oligarchic and equally ineffective and undeveloped Ukraine. This can happen even before a mega-collapse. It is enough for the most advanced experts to come to the conclusion that the current, extremely unfavorable state for a number of former developed countries will not end either in 3 months or in a year.

Russia will again go into an ineffective defense, alternately and equally ineffectually, either frightening with its weapons, or appealing to the norms of world law that has not existed since 2014, or trying to split the loose anti-Russian coalition from within . The anti-Russian coalition will begin to be joined by countries that few people think about now. For example, Bangladesh or Egypt, not to mention India and China. They will join not at all out of a desire to help Ukraine, but because they have nothing to master within their borders. By the way, it is the citizens of distant countries that will make up the bulk of the mercenary military force operating in Russia.

Ukraine's position appears to be favorable and controversial:

On the one hand, before the mega-collapse begins, Russia will definitely not attack.
On the other hand, Ukraine, as a victim of Russian aggression, is a symbol of the loose anti-Russian coalition.
On the third hand, the Ukrainian oligarchs, who prevent the development of the country at the achieved technological level, are the same enemy of the former West, like the Moscow usurper, who also prevents the development of Russia.
On the fourth hand, its own phase of civilizational turmoil in Ukraine is over , and the external civilizational conditions in Ukraine are among the best in the world.
On the fifth hand, unlike the rest of the former developed countries and Bangladesh, it is enough for Ukraine to liberate the occupied territories and there is no need to go further. Ukraine does not need to master Russia! So the Ukrainian-Russian conflict has ceased to be a conflict for survival. The degree of confrontation with Russia has already decreased - Ukraine is no longer on the edge of the spear.

At the same time, I reiterate my thesis that the maximum likelihood of a Russian invasion will be within a few months after the start of the mega-collapse. Why? The psychiatric factor of Putin, who, against the backdrop of the general grandiose panic and confusion of the mega-collapse, may think that Ukraine can be taken on the sly with little bloodshed.

In the meantime, the hysteria about the imminent attack of Putin, fanned by Western media agents of influence, also serves as a distraction for the western people. The fight against inflation is being successfully simulated. Deficits are getting worse. Collective immunity doesn’t work. Pope-blessed inclusive capitalism and green transition are finished. For the first time in many years, the threat of a decline in the standard of living, and not of security and climate protection, came to the fore for the Western man in the first place. So, you need to urgently launch the hype. It will cause mass hysteria and divert attention to the rapidly losing rationality of a wide audience of former developed countries.

But sooner or later, any induced mass hysteria ends. It is already clear that before the end of the cold weather, the usurper does not have time to organize a massive invasion with tank wedges directed towards the Dnieper. And there will come a thaw. And there is so much more going to happen.

In this situation, I want to thank the Ukrainian military top echelon for not succumbing to mass hysteria. And wish them not to prepare for the last war. And the last war for Ukraine is the war of 2014...

And I want to tell the German and other burghers that you will not have to fight for Ukraine. You will have to fight for yourself ...

As an illustration - a painting by Anatoly Fomenko. Yes, that very...

Tags: Vladimir Stus / Russia's invasion of Ukraine / Second Thirty Years War / global crisis / inflation / energy crisis in Europe / US foreign policy / European Union crisis / Russian foreign policy / Vladimir Putin