When information appeared that Russia, together with its partners in the CSTO, was sending its military contingents to Kazakhstan to help the "nomadic oligarchy" regime, many people in Ukraine had tears of childish joy. Say, now Russia "will forget about us" and the Kremlin will get almost a second "Afghanistan", in which it will "get bogged down" and we will again have the opportunity to sit and wait until our enemies melt, "like dew on the sun."
This is a naive and dangerous delusion. Our postcolonial mentality cannot grasp a simple historical mechanism - imperial strategic thinking presupposes multitasking and multilevel planning in the implementation of its regional strategy. Therefore, Russia will not forget about Ukraine. This is the first thing.
Second. It is naive to assume that Russian and Belarusian paratroopers will fight Kazakh partisans across the steppes and "storm" fortified areas. The days of the Afghan war and the first Chechen war are in the past, and since then Moscow has long been working on its mistakes. Modern imperial tactics presuppose fascinating battles between "natives" among themselves until the political result desired by the Kremlin is obtained. The troops of the mother country are directly used only for general control over the situation and auxiliary operations for the regime loyal to Moscow in the operational region.
In this context, our situation in Donbass is indicative, where the Ukrainian army, in a trench war, mainly fights against Russian proxies, and "authentic" Russian personnel officers are used pointwise and for sniper "training". At the same time, the Kremlin does not recognize its participation in hostilities and recommends Kyiv to "talk" with ORDLO.
The Russians acted in the same Jesuitical way in a situation while the Armenians and Azerbaijanis were fighting for Karabakh, in the end, it helped Moscow to further strengthen its positions in the region and bring its army into the territory of Azerbaijan.
In Kazakhstan, the CSTO forces will also participate not in "putting things in order, but in protecting the military infrastructure and other facilities."
This was stated by the head of the Duma Committee of the Russian Federation for the CIS Kalashnikov.
“This is the basis for preventing the rampant of all sorts of gangs there. But the local security forces deal with these gangs themselves. There is also Baikonur and other structures that need to be protected from such gangs and, if necessary, defended. This is the reason why CSTO is there - not only protection from external attacks, but also from such factors "(c)
Moreover, Kalashnikov added that the CSTO forces "will remain in Kazakhstan until the authorities of the country ask to withdraw them".
What's the main thing here. In the "translation" from the Kremlin "complex language" - this means that the Kazakhs should kill the Kazakhs, and the imperial forces will stand behind the Kazakh security officials and watch.
Now Kazakhstan will join the list of post-Soviet states where the Russian armed forces will be located. This "honorable" list already includes Moldova, Georgia, Tajikistan, Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine, since our territory is de facto occupied by the Russian Federation. Next in line there are Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. After all, Putin was not joking when he said that for him the collapse of the USSR was a huge tragedy...
The Baltic countries, I assure you, also look at these processes with gloomy "optimism".