According to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, the next two years will be decisive for Putin's system of power and the Russian-Ukrainian full-scale military conflict, which Russian authorities seek to end by the spring of 2025 by imposing a peace agreement on Ukraine aimed at limiting its sovereignty.
Oleg Deripaska also believes that Russia can expect a large-scale political crisis and a split among the elites if Patrushev’s influence group continues to strengthen, whose actions could destroy Putin’s balance of power. One can already notice how Russian experts and telegram channels aimed at security officials have begun to discredit the systemic liberals Elvira Nabiullina, Anton Siluanov and other Russian highly professional technocrats, thanks to whom there is relative economic stability in Russia.
Therefore, in order to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position and prevent the implementation of the Kremlin scenario of imposing an unfavorable “peace agreement” on our country, in 2024-2025 Ukraine will demand military success and increased military assistance from our Western partners, who need to be convinced that only the dismantling of Putin’s terrorist regime will allow ending the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Now the indecisiveness of Western politicians allows Putin to consolidate the Russian elite around himself, so the latest article by the influential American expert Thomas Graham is very indicative, in which he focuses on the possibility of normalizing US relations with Russia after the end of the war, even if it retains control over the occupied territories. its territories of Ukraine. Thomas Graham, unfortunately, does not realize that territorial concessions to Ukraine would lead to the strengthening of Patrushev’s anti-Western influence group in the Russian Federation, the strengthening of the Beijing-Moscow axis and the consolidation of the Russian elite around Putinism [the model of power].
Only the loss of power by Putin and Patrushev can pave the way for a peace treaty between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. The main criterion for establishing peace, at a minimum, should be the consent of representatives of the Russian authorities to the withdrawal of its troops to positions that existed before the full-scale Russian aggression on February 24, 2022.
In the end, adequate representatives of the Russian elite must understand that the territories of Ukraine occupied by Russia have become a trap and toxic ballast for it, which results in its geopolitical marginalization, loss of influence in Europe and becoming a vassal of China. Therefore, the refusal of the Russian authorities from all territories of Ukraine occupied due to the adventure of the international terrorist Putin would strengthen the Russian Federation economically and geopolitically and allow it to normalize relations with Ukraine by paying compensation for the destroyed Ukrainian infrastructure.
Now representatives of the Putin fascist regime really hope that the political crisis in the United States will develop into an internal conflict after the presidential elections, and some Americans are very much helping them in this. For example, the famous American ideologist Steve Bannon considers the far-right [Trumpists] to be “new Bolsheviks” who must destroy the American liberal empire.
From the point of view of Kremlin ideologists, the current political processes in the United States are reminiscent of the period of the struggle for power of Julius Caesar, which led to the fall of the Roman Republic and the decline of republicanism, which, among other things, was admired by the founding parents of the United States.
The main arguments in the United States against providing military assistance to Ukraine are quite easily defeated by facts. Firstly, American economists are convinced that the money allocated to Ukraine remains in the American economy, since our country receives mainly weapons from warehouses, while this money is used to create new weapons for the United States by American manufacturers.
Second, a loss to Ukraine would increase the economic costs for the United States, which would be forced to send more American troops to protect its European allies, thereby weakening China's deterrence. In addition, after the public support of some Russian politicians, journalists and pro-government philosophers for Hamas terrorists during their aggression against Israel, which is sacred to Christians, playing along with the Putin regime on the part of American politicians positioning themselves as Christian nationalists looks like a betrayal of Christian values.
It is also very important to understand that, from the point of view of many American politicians, Ukrainians are irrational in their decisions regarding Russia and we lack maturity and understanding of the importance of geopolitical balance. Although in fact, it is the Ukrainians who better understand the Russians, their mentality and cultural characteristics, the same geopolitical methods that were effective during the Cold War are now outdated and completely ineffective. The Kremlin is not interested in geopolitical balance, Russia seeks to regain control in Central Europe, at a time when imperialist China wants to dominate Asia and Iran in the Middle East.
Representatives of the Russian government are carriers of a criminal consciousness; they openly despise compromise and respect only force. By imitating peace negotiations, the Kremlin has always managed to slow down the West's provision of military aid to Ukraine, using the West's skillful bluff and illusions about Putin's criminal regime. Unfortunately, while negotiating with representatives of the Russian authorities, the Americans forgot about the statements of John McCain: “When I looked into Putin’s eyes, I saw the letters KGB in them.”