“It is important for us that Ukraine win this war.
This is of paramount importance both for the future of Ukraine, and also for the future and security of Europe and even the whole world ...
History is now being made in Ukraine.”
Charles Michel, President of the European Council
The criminal Russian aggression and the heroic resistance of the Ukrainians caused an unprecedented shock throughout the world since the Second World War.
The tectonic plates of the military, political, economic and ideological foundations of relations between states began to move.
And although the truly revolutionary changes that are taking place have not yet been comprehended and formulated, the contours of the future world are already visible.
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The Russian-Ukrainian war taught humanity two main lessons.
The first is the understanding of world processes based on the primacy of the economy over management, which is rapidly becoming a thing of the past.
Spiritual values such as democracy and natural human rights are not derivatives of economics and are not a cover for "real politics". These are self-sufficient fundamental backbone factors of world transformation.
At the same time, such categories as "aggressor", "unfriendly states", "totalitarian despotic regimes", "proxy country" begin to define international economic relations.
The second most important lesson is the international institutions that emerged after the Second World War: the UN and its structures (the Security Council, UNESCO, etc.), the IMF, the IBRD, the WTO are in a deep crisis of capacity.
They were created to stop and prevent wars, to ensure sustainable development for all members of the world community.
However, in the 80 years since the end of World War II, these institutions have degenerated into a series of bureaucratic and incompetent international structures.
Suffice it to say that a country recognized by the international community as an aggressor and committing all kinds of crimes against humanity presides over the UN Security Council.
At the meeting of the G7 countries in May 2023, UN Secretary-General A. Guterres stated: “In the face of economic shocks caused by the pandemic and then hostilities in Ukraine, the system failed to fulfill the function of a global security network. …. The time has come to reform the UN Security Council and the institutions of the Bretton Woods system in accordance with the realities of today's world .
But the problem is not even that so far no one has proposed real mechanisms and ideologies for such reform, but that these institutions are unlikely to be reformed.
Russia has not only hacked into the international security system, but has thrown down a cynical challenge to the entire rules-based system of international interaction.
Therefore, the most promising way is the gradual replacement of incapacitated international structures with new ones based on other value and organizational principles.
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To date, the most mobile and effective international structure is what we call the Ramstein Coalition.
Since April 26, 2022, the first meeting of the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group was held at the Ramstein military base (Germany). Within the framework of the "Ramstein format" there is an ever closer integration: not only military, but also economic, political, ideological.
There is an increase in the number of participants and an expansion of the range of tasks that they solve.
To date, 54 countries are currently participating in the work of the group, and the Ramstein Coalition is quite rightly compared with the anti-Hitler coalition.
Firstly, because the Russian political regime mimics Hitler's with surprising accuracy.
And secondly, the “Ramstein Coalition” is quite capable, like the anti-Hitler one, to ensure a military victory over the aggressor and determine the political, legal and economic architecture of the world for the next 80 years, which will be based on values.
That is, just like 80 years ago, in the process of solving a specific problem, a much larger project is born.
The interaction between Ukraine and the Ramstein Coalition is a prototype of a security model for the not yet created, but quite real world of the near future.
This model completely excludes the possibility of waging an aggressive war, and clear algorithms for ensuring common security will not require additional consultations and approvals.
During a speech to the British Parliament in February 2023, President Zelensky said: "...a victory for Ukraine will change the world, and these will be changes that the world needs for a long time ... It will be a victory over the very idea of war."
The "Ramstein Coalition" has a truly colossal economic, technological and military potential.
"Rammstein" is almost half of the world's GDP, and the total Composite National Capacity Index is 0.385 (with a total of 1.008 for all countries).
The increase in military spending should not only radically increase the collective military power of the Coalition, but also create the basis for its technological leadership.
Within the framework of the “Ramstein format”, political, economic, military, humanitarian and financial dominance in the world can be realized on the basis of basic humanistic values.
This opens up wide scope for conflict-free interaction between countries on different continents with different historical traditions, religions and levels of economic development.
The ideology of the future union (or coalition of unions) can be invested with the best developments created within the framework of the UN, however, supported by effective mechanisms that ensure their implementation in practical terms.
In addition to creating a security system in the military sense, within the framework of the Ramstein Coalition it is possible to implement, for example, environmental projects at the local and global levels, as well as the transition to a new monetary and financial system based on new technological principles and solutions.
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Now the world is witnessing distinct trends in various areas that inspire cautious optimism: in the military, economic, political and ideological.
The leading countries of the Ramstein Coalition have successfully overcome the shocks associated with the transition to the priority in the economy of political decisions based on values over purely economic pragmatic decisions.
In connection with the sanctions against the aggressor and his accomplices, the established logistics and technological chains collapsed, but through coordinated actions, new ones were created.
Europe has overcome dependence on Russian energy carriers, and the process of high-tech reindustrialization has started in the leading countries of the Coalition.
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The most important area of global transformation should be the development and implementation of security guarantees for Ukraine. They should become the launching pad for the creation of a multi-level network system of global security.
The contours of such a system emerge in the process of developing security decisions that are taken in connection with Russia's aggression against Ukraine.
These decisions are made within the framework of: the Ramstein Coalition; NATO; EU; G7 and G20; regional unions; individual countries and the coordinated situational response of several countries to a particular event.
Thus, on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023, the leaders of the G7 countries approved the Declaration, which provides for the provision of guarantees of economic and military assistance, which will be valid until Ukraine acquires NATO membership.
US President Joe Biden said at the G7 meeting in July this year: “We will help Ukraine build a strong defense on land, sea and in the sky. It will be a stable deterrent against any threats."
Work began on Ukraine's bilateral agreements with the United States and the United Kingdom on security assurances.
On August 5-6, 2023, a large meeting was held in Saudi Arabia with the participation of representatives of 38 countries (plus representatives from the EU and the UN).
The meeting participants came to a common conclusion that the Russian-Ukrainian war is not a local conflict in Europe, but a global one.
It is fundamentally important that the meeting in Jeddah was a meeting of politicians who share common civilizational values.
In addition, there is a self-determination of previously neutral countries regarding Russian aggression. Not only out of fear of falling under secondary sanctions, but out of an understanding of the powerful global mainstream.
As an example of coordinated situational decisions by a group of countries regarding a specific event, one can cite a joint declaration signed by more than 80 states demanding that food be used as a tool in conflicts.
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We are witnessing the creation of a networked, multi-loop and effective security structure for the New World.
The new system, in addition to the basic value, will have a legal, economic and effective power component.
It will include mechanisms for coordinating moral, diplomatic, legal economic and military pressure on the violator of the security system.
The Russian-Ukrainian war is a battle for the future of human civilization. The outcome of this battle will determine the world order for the next 80 years.
Countries and peoples that quickly and correctly orient themselves in this trend can count on their rightful place in the world distribution of labor.
But while Ukraine is waging a heroic war against the aggressor, concurrently, openly despotic regimes are consolidating.
If Ukraine and the coalition supporting it lose, the dictatorships will not only survive politically, but may later become the dominant world power.
In addition, the failure to create a new architecture of international cooperation will serve as an unambiguous signal to all the forces of the totalitarian, extremist, terrorist and neo-Nazi persuasion that are present in all countries.
This signal will allow them to either seize power by force or even legitimately win elections, as Hitler did in 1933.
Therefore, the wisdom of the peoples and the responsibility of their leaders for the right decision are now critical.
All the more inappropriate are the questions “Who owes whom more?” As Ukraine pays with the blood and suffering of its citizens, and the participants in the potential dominant power of the New World contribute with weapons, finances and unity based on an understanding of the world perspective.
Building a future safe and humanistically oriented human civilization is possible only under the conditions of a conscious and coordinated public policy.
Only then will humanity have a democratic and humanistic perspective.
Today humanity is faced with challenges of an extraordinary nature. It is fundamentally important within what system of values they will be answered.
Full text of the Global Transformation Manifesto .
Authors:
Vladimir Shevchenko , political scientist, Doctor of Philosophy;
Andrey Savarts , analyst, lawyer, author of the telegram channel Special Opinion.
