US President Joseph Biden told a sad story about how long Volodymyr Zelensky warned about Russia's impending invasion of Ukraine.
To be sure, both Zelensky and his team bear a huge blame for the fact that Ukraine ignored the threat of invasion. And on this occasion in Ukraine there will be a big debriefing after the war.
However, we are talking about what Biden did specifically when he warned Zelensky. So he knows that the threat of invasion looms over Ukraine and what is the United States doing as a signatory of Budapest? Maybe they are starting to intensively arm Ukraine and warn Russia that the invasion will not go unpunished? Especially after the maneuvers of the Russian army near the borders of Ukraine in the spring of 2021. No, after that, Biden goes to a meeting with Putin in Geneva, and Ukraine begins rolling over Minsk-2. Already in the autumn of 2021, Ukraine asked for heavy weapons systems, and in November the information buildup began on the subject of Russian invasion. For four months, the US was talking about Putin launching an invasion, but only after the New Year did they begin to provide light weapon systems in the format of a "mujahideen kit." And on the eve of the invasion, the embassy was generally taken out of Kyiv, and Zelensky was offered evacuation. That is, Biden did not believe that Ukraine would fight, did not believe that Zelensky would keep the situation under control and repeated the Afghan option of leaving. Biden also "forgot" to say that key members of his team, Burns and Sullivan, pushed for Ukraine's implementation of Minsk-2 and considered a deal with Russia acceptable in the context of growing tensions between the US and China. As a result, both US intelligence and Biden himself were mistaken. They were mistaken in their ability to predict the level of resistance in Ukraine, in the behavior of Zelensky, as well as in the capabilities of the Russian army, which at the initial stage of the war showed a blatant level of disorganization and failures in planning. However, if Zelensky had run and Ukraine had given up, Putin's paper tiger would have won a huge victory that would have been disastrous for Europe and the global security architecture.
If Biden and Putin had not made a deal, then there is no doubt that Germany, Russia and China would have 250 arguments why they need to deepen cooperation and divide spheres of influence. The One Belt, One Road project would receive a tremendous boost, and the Americans would get a weakening of their positions in Europe and in the world. Further, China would certainly have decided to go to war with Taiwan in the foreseeable future.
If Biden and Putin made a deal, then the US would turn a blind eye to the absorption of Ukraine by Russia, just as Britain, France and the US turned a blind eye to the Soviet participation in the partition of Poland in 1939. In this case, Russia would play in the US camp against China. This, by the way, is a very real option in the event of the overthrow of Putin or after his departure (death). It is important for the Americans that Russia is not on the side of China.
Finally, it cannot be ruled out that from the very beginning the US used Ukraine as a bait for Russia. From the very beginning - since 2014, when it was beneficial for them that Russia swallowed Ukraine as deep as possible in order to use aggression in order to first weaken the weaker player in the China-Russia pair, in order to then focus on China. In this case, a frightened Europe would run into the arms of the United States, America would have the opportunity to sharply increase the supply of its energy resources, and the war opened up opportunities for large-scale programs for the military-industrial complex, which we saw in the example of the launch of Lend-Lease, which solves the problem of rearming Central and Eastern Europe with American weapons.
This is a very cynical strategy, but such strategies have been used more than once or twice by great powers in their history. For example, the United States used Afghanistan as a swamp for the USSR, which exhausted it. But in the same way, the USSR used Vietnam to wear down the United States in the 60s and 70s. In this logic, the United States really did not need to rush, because the deeper Russia gets bogged down in Ukraine, the easier it will be to drive it into a stall later. This is a classic of Liddle Garth's indirect action strategy.
Finally, the most banal option cannot be ruled out. The US, like Europe, simply did not have any strategy and went with the flow, hoping that everything would resolve itself. Therefore, they were ready to make any concessions, if only not to get involved in the risks of conflict, which immediately took them beyond the limits of their usual and convenient behavior.
In any case, the position of the United States and Biden personally regarding Ukraine was either irresponsible or cynical. Or both at the same time. When Biden says today that he is not opposed to Ukraine entering into any agreements with Russia that it considers necessary, they say, it is a sovereign state and has the right to do so, then this is an unspoken consent to territorial concessions that Ukraine must bear in the format " respect for the face" of Putin. What the Macrons and Scholzes like to talk about.
Therefore, Biden's messages that he warned Zelensky are another attempt to keep a good face on a bad game. Zelensky broke them all with his stubbornness. The convenient system of agreements that lined the pockets of the Western elite with Russian oil and gas money in exchange for the gradual expansion of its sphere of influence was undoubtedly beneficial and desirable for them. But on February 24, it came to an end.
All of the above in no way negates our work on the bugs. For this whole story about the fact that no one needs us, and being weak and stupid is an unaffordable luxury in a world that is teeming with aggressive piranhas and sharks. And Zelensky really needs to give answers to questions about why they missed the start of the war. And make staffing decisions. Because the lack of personnel decisions on intrusion prevention errors encourages errors in the next stages of intrusion repulsion.
