Joining temporarily occupied territories in exchange for little money. The main conclusions of the Putin-Biden meeting.
Putin-Biden meeting is commented on here in two ways: either they talk about how the collective West defeated Putin or about Zelenskyy's complete defeat. The truth, unfortunately, is not in the middle, but it is not so clear.
Unfortunately, we need to start with the bad.
1. This is a game about Ukraine without Ukraine. Biden's reluctance to communicate with Zelenskyy after the meeting and the development of the West's collective position on Ukraine is a threatening signal: on Thursday, Biden will announce to us a proposal to negotiate with temporarily occupied territories in exchange for money.
2. The United States has withdrawn from the Nord Stream issue: it has shifted the solution to Germany (this is not news, because this is the position taken by Biden after the Geneva meeting)
3. In the event of direct aggression, the United States will defend NATO's eastern borders. Baltics and Poles can sleep peacefully. And we must understand that this meeting, of course, is not the Molotov-Ribbentrop-2 pact, but it is part of agreements on spheres of influence.
4. We do not have consolidation of elites on the Minsk issue. We continue to live in the paradigm of the rating war of politicians. No one, neither in power nor in opposition, will play to unite the elites.
What's good?
1. There will be no full-scale war in the near future.
2. We theoretically have time. And this is one of our most important resources. Although very limited.
What has to be done?
1. Do not allow blitzkrieg. Now, instead of the Norman format "three against one", there will be five against Ukraine. We need to prolong our time as much as possible.
2. Within the country, we need to understand what concessions we are willing to make. Unfortunately, we can't do without concessions and, perhaps, we should be the first before the Biden-Zelenskyy conversation to identify the red lines and hint at what we are ready to theoretically agree to.
3. The diplomatic front, aimed at Biden's new coalition to force Ukraine to join Minsk, is one of the most important tasks of the state. And here we must reject party stories. Spending a billion on lobbyists is now more important than building 10 km of road.
4. I am tired of writing about terrorist defense, reservists, the army, but now is the key moment for consolidating people. There will be no Maidan if we clearly understand that Zelenskyy is ready to defend it. Without this, there will be a quasi-Maidan and a possible split in the country.
5. The only idea the government has is a referendum on the status of temporarily occupied territories. But the referendum is a nuclear weapon, which few of us guess. It can both consolidate and split the nation. And before you run it, you need to think a hundred times.
Conclusion:
The situation is very complicated. But we have the opportunity to get through this situation with relatively small losses.
I always remember the words of the national team coach Yozhef Sabo before the match with the Germans. Then he was asked about the mood in the team. And he replied: "No one should fart in a tank." And we did not lose then.
