Prominent Ukrainian diplomat Alexander Chaly explained why the moment of truth has come for Ukraine. Russia decided to radically resolve the Ukrainian issue. Putin's two proposals addressed to the United States and NATO open up not only huge threats for Ukraine, but also opportunities to break the deadlock. For this, it is necessary to radically change the approaches to Ukraine's foreign policy.
Alexander Chaly said this in an interview with Yuri Romanenko.
Alexander Chaly believes that Russia has made a tough geopolitical proposal to the collective West. First of all, the United States, as the leader of the collective West. In his opinion, "the West realized that this was the moment of truth, because he did not immediately say no to the Russian proposals." On the contrary, it seeks to start a dialogue with the Russian Federation and the parameters of this dialogue are being agreed upon. Russia is instructing that this dialogue does not go into a long period of time, because Putin says that he will not allow halftones.
The West understands two strategic things - the time has come to try coming to an agreement, and second - that the West does not have the tools to contain Russia in the near abroad, and in any case they are losing. However, losing will be a major strategic defeat, as it will become the second Afghanistan. The Biden administration cannot let this happen, because in 2022 it has midterm congressional elections on its agenda. Therefore, there is reason to expect a dialogue in January-February 2022.
In the future, the situation can go according to three scenarios, according to Alexander Chaly:
The first is a scenario of peace if full agreement is reached. That is, the achievement of a formula for European security, where the significant conditions that Russia proposed must be taken into account. Not all, but taken into account.
The second is the "cold war" scenario, when the parties fail to come to an agreement and a confrontation between the West and Russia in their struggle for Ukraine begins to develop. This is a very unfavorable option that must be avoided.
The third is the “cold peace” scenario, when the parties will determine the format of the negotiations and enter into negotiations that are long enough to work out a formula for reconciliation. Not peace, but reconciliation between Russia and the West regarding Ukraine.
“In this situation, Ukraine has even more opportunities for its voice to be heard. But this requires a new foreign policy, its new paradigm, and, accordingly, a new domestic policy,” said Alexander Chaly. “In general, I dream that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will catch his second wind and formulate a new foreign policy doctrine that will meet the new historical realities in Europe and the world,” he added.